Bernstein analysts reiterated a bullish long-term outlook for bitcoin, calling the present bitcoin worth downturn the “weakest bear case” within the asset’s historical past and sustaining a $150,000 worth goal by the tip of 2026.
The analysis and brokerage agency argued that the current drawdown displays a disaster of confidence relatively than structural injury to bitcoin’s community or funding thesis.
“What we’re experiencing is the weakest bitcoin bear case in its historical past,” the analysts wrote, including that not one of the typical catalysts behind previous crypto winters have emerged.
Bernstein mentioned earlier bear markets have been pushed by main failures, hidden leverage, or systemic breakdowns. This cycle, the agency sees no comparable blowups or widespread insolvencies.
As a substitute, analysts pointed to rising institutional alignment as a key distinction. They cited assist from a pro-bitcoin U.S. political surroundings, increasing adoption of spot BTC ETFs, rising company treasury participation, and continued involvement from giant asset managers.
The agency argued that bitcoin’s broader adoption story stays intact regardless of market weak spot.
Bernstein additionally addressed criticism that bitcoin has lagged gold through the newest interval of macro volatility. They mentioned BTC continues to commerce primarily as a liquidity-sensitive threat asset relatively than a mature secure haven.
They famous that elevated rates of interest and tighter monetary circumstances have concentrated beneficial properties in choose areas akin to treasured metals and AI-linked equities.
Bernstein mentioned BTC ETF infrastructure and company capital-raising channels stay positioned to soak up renewed liquidity if circumstances ease.
Reporting from The Block helped with the protection of this evaluation.
Bernstein stays bullish on bitcoin; quantum fears dismissed.
The analysts additionally pushed again in opposition to claims that BTC is dropping relevance in an financial system formed by synthetic intelligence.
They argued that blockchains and programmable wallets might play a central function in an rising “agentic” digital surroundings, the place autonomous software program brokers require world, machine-readable monetary rails. Conventional banking methods, they mentioned, stay constrained by closed APIs and legacy integration boundaries.
On quantum computing, Bernstein acknowledged that future cryptographic threats warrant preparation however mentioned BTC just isn’t uniquely uncovered.
The agency argued that every one vital digital methods face related dangers and can transition towards quantum-resistant requirements collectively.
These ideas echo that of Technique, on Technique’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings name, Government Chairman Michael Saylor mentioned the corporate will launch a Bitcoin Safety Program aimed toward coordinating with the broader cyber and crypto group.
The message echoed Technique’s view that quantum computing just isn’t a direct risk, however a future engineering problem that the community could have time to deal with.
Saylor framed quantum fears as the most recent model of “FUD,” arguing that many main industries nonetheless depend on the identical cryptographic foundations BTC makes use of right this moment. He pointed to ongoing world funding in quantum-resistant analysis and mentioned the Bitcoin ecosystem is already exploring upgrades that might strengthen the protocol if wanted.
He emphasised that any main change would require broad world consensus, in keeping with Bitcoin’s historical past of adapting by way of technical and regulatory strain.
Bernstein added that BTC’s clear codebase and the rising involvement of well-capitalized stakeholders place it to adapt alongside different monetary and governmental methods.
Bernstein additionally dismissed considerations about leveraged company bitcoin accumulation and the danger of miner capitulation.
The analysts mentioned main bitcoin-holding corporations have structured liabilities to face up to extended downturns.
They pointed to feedback from Technique executives that solely an excessive state of affairs — BTC falling to $8,000 and remaining there for 5 years — would require stability sheet restructuring.
Bernstein maintained that the selloff represents sentiment weak spot relatively than systemic failure, and reiterated its forecast for bitcoin to succeed in $150,000 by the tip of 2026.
On the time of writing, BTC is buying and selling barely under $70,000.
