Elon Musk lately revived the “51 % renewables” benchmark, stating that the power backing Bitcoin “can’t be faked.”
The reference is to his earlier promise that Tesla would resume accepting Bitcoin funds as soon as at the very least half of mining power got here from clear or low-carbon sources.
Nevertheless, now that the most recent knowledge suggests the community could have crossed that threshold, Tesla nonetheless hasn’t re-enabled BTC checkout. Why?
Has Bitcoin handed the bar but?
In keeping with the Cambridge Centre for Various Finance’s 2025 Digital Mining Business Report, sustainable power now powers roughly 52.4 % of surveyed Bitcoin mining exercise.
Of that, 42.6 % is from renewables (hydro, wind, photo voltaic, and many others.) and 9.8 % from nuclear or different low-carbon sources. In parallel, fossil gasoline contributions have shifted: pure fuel now accounts for 38.2 % (up from ~25 % in 2022), and coal has fallen to eight.9 % (down from ~36.6 %).
If Musk’s promise is taken actually, Bitcoin could already exceed the 51 % “sustainable power” bar, at the very least as measured by Cambridge’s survey of companies that cowl roughly 48 % of world mining capability.
However that is solely half the story. The wording issues: Musk has referenced renewables (50 %) in earlier feedback, although in later tweets he says “51 % renewable” or “power you’ll be able to’t pretend.” The Cambridge determine lumps renewables + nuclear; the pure renewables share is decrease (42.6 %).
So, BTC should still fall brief relying on the rigidity of Musk’s definition.
Furthermore, the Cambridge strategy is survey-based and covers solely a subset of miners. Off-grid operations, curtailed renewables, regional idiosyncrasies, and temporal mismatches (when renewables produce roughly relative to mining demand) complicate the image.
Alternate fashions, similar to these based mostly on grid carbon depth or power tracing, usually yield extra conservative estimates of renewable share. That divergence means even a nominal “go” is topic to debate.
So why hasn’t Tesla flipped the change?
Even granting that Bitcoin could now qualify underneath Musk’s sustainability check, Tesla has not re-enabled BTC funds. A number of pragmatic and symbolic hurdles stay.
The primary is due diligence. Musk beforehand said that Tesla would solely restart funds as soon as he noticed “cheap (~50 %) clear power utilization … and a pattern towards rising that quantity.” That wording implies he’s searching for persistence, not a one-off knowledge level.
A single report displaying 52 % sustainable power could not fulfill his requirement for a verified and sustained upward pattern in Bitcoin’s power combine.
One other issue is definition readability. Tesla would wish to resolve whether or not “sustainable” consists of nuclear and low-carbon sources or strictly renewables like hydro, wind, and photo voltaic. The Cambridge knowledge combines these classes, however Musk’s earlier phrasing referenced renewables particularly.
With no universally accepted definition, any choice to renew BTC funds dangers being accused of greenwashing.
There’s additionally the problem of service provider and market threat. Accepting Bitcoin exposes Tesla to cost volatility, advanced accounting remedy, and potential regulatory issues.
Even when the corporate instantly converts BTC receipts to fiat, fluctuations between order placement and settlement introduce monetary uncertainty that will not be well worth the effort for a automotive producer working on skinny margins.
Model optics add one other layer. Tesla’s picture is constructed on environmental credibility, and even a minor backslide in Bitcoin’s power profile might set off backlash from buyers and ESG-minded prospects. The corporate could want to err on the facet of warning reasonably than face renewed criticism if mining exercise shifts again towards fossil-heavy areas.
Lastly, operational integration can’t be ignored. To convey Bitcoin funds again on-line, Tesla would wish to rebuild pockets infrastructure, transaction pipelines, and conversion mechanisms. That requires engineering assets and inner approvals: steps which are removed from trivial for a world producer already balancing a number of product launches and software program initiatives.
Taken collectively, these elements recommend that clearing the 51 % renewable threshold will not be sufficient by itself. For Musk, the check appears to be as a lot about confidence, consistency, and notion as about uncooked knowledge. Till these align, Tesla’s checkout web page is prone to keep crypto-free.
What this implies for adoption
From a story standpoint, Musk’s reengagement wields affect. If Bitcoin can credibly cleave to a cleaner power combine and main business counterparts like Tesla start transacting once more, it will reinforce a extra sustainable narrative for crypto.
But Tesla’s continued off-chain standing regardless of claims suggests Musk views the promise as conditional, not automated. The check is as a lot about optics, threat management, and narrative as it’s about easy metrics.
For now, Bitcoin’s claimed “51 %+ sustainable” standing gives a compelling rebuttal to critics, however till checkouts return, it stays extra of a symbolic win than a business one.
