The 2026 FIFA World Cup might mark a breakout second for prediction markets, with Coinbase rising as one of many largest winners, based on a brand new analysis report from Bernstein.
Revealed Thursday, the Bernstein analysts estimate the expanded match will generate greater than $3 billion in incremental sports activities betting deal with and $5 billion to $10 billion in further shopper prediction market quantity, as 104 matches remodel what is usually the slowest interval for on-line sports activities betting.
FIFA expects the month-long match to draw roughly 6 billion viewers worldwide, up from an estimated 5 billion in the course of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. Matches are scheduled to begin immediately.
Bernstein mentioned Coinbase has established itself as a serious participant within the sector, surpassing $100 million in annualized prediction market income in March, simply months after launching the product.
As Cointelegraph reported, the crypto trade rolled out prediction markets nationwide by way of a partnership with Kalshi, permitting customers in all 50 US states to commerce occasion contracts tied to sports activities, politics, tradition and different real-world outcomes.
Robinhood can also be anticipated to learn from the match. Bernstein famous that the brokerage is utilizing the occasion to launch Rothera, its personal US Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee (CFTC)-licensed trade and clearinghouse for prediction markets.
“[W]e count on prediction markets to be the most important driver of incremental income for Robinhood,” the analysts wrote, forecasting roughly $586 million in prediction market income for 2026.
Bernstein expects the FIFA World Cup to rework the slowest months for on-line sports activities betting into a serious driver of betting and prediction market volumes. Supply: Bernstein
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Sports activities emerge as prediction markets’ largest progress driver
Prediction markets have turn out to be one in every of crypto’s fastest-growing use circumstances, increasing even because the broader digital asset market has cooled.
An April report by Bitget Pockets and Polymarket discovered that month-to-month prediction market buying and selling quantity reached almost $26 billion, with retail merchants accounting for greater than 80% of customers.
Prediction market volumes have grown significantly since late 2025. Supply: Bitget Pockets
The report additionally pointed to a structural shift in person conduct. Fairly than attracting exercise round one-off occasions reminiscent of elections, prediction markets are more and more retaining customers throughout recurring classes, with sports activities rising as the most important section.
In March alone, sports activities betting accounted for greater than 39% of prediction market volumes, based on Bitget Pockets and Polygon.
The CFTC on Wednesday issued draft guidelines for prediction markets signaling that sports activities occasion contracts are typically not opposite to the general public curiosity although federal regulation classifies them as “gaming.”
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