US Rep. Ritchie Torres stated he’ll introduce laws to curb what he and different lawmakers describe as attainable insider buying and selling on prediction markets, after a single, extremely timed wager on Polymarket paid off when Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was captured.
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Stories have disclosed that the invoice — being known as the Public Integrity in Monetary Prediction Markets Act of 2026 — would bar federally elected officers, political appointees and govt department employees from buying and selling on occasion markets once they maintain materials nonpublic info.
Public Integrity In Focus
In response to reporting, a newly created Polymarket account positioned roughly $32,500 in bets on a contract that requested whether or not Maduro could be out of energy by January 31, 2026. That stake purchased about 438,000 shares when the market value was as little as $0.07 per share late Friday.
Inside about 24 hours, after motion by US forces and an announcement by US President Donald Trump, the place surged—returning greater than $400,000 to the account.
NEW — RITCHIE TORRES (D-N.Y.) will introduce a invoice on this.
Invoice will probably be known as the Public Integrity in Monetary Prediction Markets Act of 2026
Description, per a supply:
This invoice prohibits federal elected officers, political appointees, and Government Department staff… https://t.co/eZZ9BmAMgJ
— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) January 3, 2026
The commerce’s timing set off speedy questions. Social media customers and a few traders flagged the acquisition as suspicious as a result of it got here hours earlier than the general public announcement.
Observers famous that prediction markets can transfer shortly on small flows of knowledge, and that enforcement guidelines differ throughout platforms.
Stories observe that different markets, like Kalshi, had priced comparable outcomes at roughly $0.13, underlining how surprising the result was to many merchants.
A newly created Polymarket account invested over $30,000 yesterday in Maduro’s exit. The US then took Maduro into custody in a single day, and the dealer profited $400,000 in lower than 24 hours. Insider buying and selling just isn’t solely allowed on prediction markets; it’s inspired. https://t.co/EtZyW1IWTa pic.twitter.com/MzsU9kOU73
— Joe Pompliano (@JoePompliano) January 3, 2026
How The Invoice Would Work
Torres’s proposal would adapt ideas from present guidelines that restrict buying and selling by officers in conventional securities markets and lengthen them to on-line prediction exchanges.
The draft language goals to make it illegal for coated authorities figures to commerce on contracts tied to authorities actions or political occasions once they possess nonpublic info due to their official roles.
The measure would additionally activity regulators with clarifying which platforms are coated and the way violations could be enforced.
Market Response And Questions
Platform operators have lengthy stated their phrases forbid buying and selling on materials nonpublic info, however critics say these guidelines are laborious to police in actual time.
Some analysts and lawmakers argue that this episode reveals a spot between written insurance policies and efficient oversight. Others warn in opposition to overreach that might stifle reputable market exercise used for forecasting and analysis.
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Investigations might have a look at the account’s origins and any hyperlinks to folks with privileged information. Lawmakers, in the meantime, are pushing for clearer authorized guardrails. If Congress strikes shortly, new guidelines may reshape who might legally wager on political and nationwide safety occasions.
Featured picture from AFP/Getty Pictures, chart from TradingView
