Polymarket odds: Hormuz traffic normal by Jul 31 at 1.15% on $19.1M

Polymarket Reprices “Hormuz Site visitors Regular by July 31” After U.S.-Iran Assault Headlines Preserve Transport Stalled

On Polymarket, merchants now value the “Strait of Hormuz site visitors returns to regular by July 31?” contract at 1.15% Sure (98.85% No) on $19.06M matched quantity. The repricing follows recent reporting on continued U.S.-Iran assaults and stalled transport, and the market’s personal sharp 24h/7d likelihood swing.

Key Takeaways

• Prediction: Polymarket’s main final result is No at 98.85% (Sure 1.15%) for site visitors returning to regular by July 31.
• Foundation: Continued conflict-linked transport disruption headlines aligned with merchants pushing the contract sharply towards No on heavy quantity.
• Timing: The market resolves on 2026-07-31; the likelihood has moved 37.5 share factors over each the previous 24h and 7d.

A report describes a tenth straight day of assaults between the U.S. and Iran throughout the Center East, with diplomacy efforts faltering and the struggle framed as a battle for management over the Strait of Hormuz. The story says transport by way of the strait has been largely stalled, consists of an account of a tanker attacked within the strait, and notes power costs rising amid the escalation.

Odds Breakdown: Sure 1.15% vs No 98.85% on $19.06M Matched Quantity, with a 37.5pp Transfer in 24h/7d

This can be a binary Polymarket contract: shopping for Sure solely pays if the market resolves that Hormuz site visitors “returns to regular” by the July 31 decision date, whereas No pays in any other case—so the present 1.15% Sure value implies merchants see normalization by the deadline as impossible. The transfer just isn’t delicate: the contract’s abstract exhibits a 37.5pp shift over each 24 hours and 7 days, tagged as bearish with sturdy momentum, excessive volatility, and a weakening consensus—indicators that even because the market marched decrease, there was nonetheless significant disagreement alongside the best way. The historic tape additionally exhibits a sequence of step-down reprices (together with -6.0pp and -5.5pp strikes), per headline-driven updates reasonably than a easy glide path. With $19.06M matched, the market is absorbing data rapidly, and at these odds it’s successfully buying and selling “regular by July 31” as a tail final result reasonably than a base case.

As a result of the settlement hinges on situations “by July 31,” look ahead to any credible shift towards resumed transport and throughput within the strait earlier than month-end; absent that, the market’s pricing suggests little room left for a Sure rebound from 1.15%.

What Merchants Watch Subsequent on Polymarket: Spillover Contracts on Oil Costs, Transport Disruption, and Broader Center East R

When you’re monitoring spillovers past this headline market, Polymarket merchants are additionally clustering into adjoining contracts that map the following catalysts for power and transport threat. “Will the U.S. invade Iran earlier than 2027?” sits at 72.5% No on $45.94M quantity, whereas “Iran chief finish of 2026?” costs Mojtaba Khamenei at 73.55% on $33.26M—each high-liquidity gauges that may reprice rapidly on recent alerts. On the nearer-term tape, “US x Iran Efficient Ceasefire by…? (2 week pause)” is 54.5% on $1.84M, and “Iran full airspace closure by…?” is 43.5% on $5.17M, providing shorter-dated readthroughs merchants use to triangulate how disruption dangers might evolve subsequent.

Odds Development

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Strait of Hormuz site visitors returns to regular by July 31?
• Decision window: Jul 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Standing: Lively (open for buying and selling)
• Main implied prob.: 1.1%
• Quantity: ~$19,058,815
• High outcomes: Sure: Sure 1.1% / No 98.8%; No: Sure 1.1% / No 98.8%

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