Polymarket odds for US-Iran ceasefire by Aug 31 rise to 58.5%

Polymarket Ceasefire Ladder Reprices After Experiences of In a single day U.S. Strikes in Iran

Polymarket merchants pushed the implied odds of an “efficient US x Iran ceasefire by August 31” as much as 58.5% on $1,488,626 in quantity, a 5.0-point transfer increased. The repricing follows headlines about in a single day U.S. strikes in Iran, and this ladder market exhibits how timing expectations shift throughout a number of deadlines.

Key Takeaways

• Market-implied favourite is “Efficient ceasefire by August 31” at 58.5% (No 41.5%).
• After stories of in a single day U.S. strikes in Iran, the ladder repriced towards a later ceasefire window reasonably than near-term deadlines.
• Contract resolves by 2026-08-31 23:59 UTC; the main line is up 5.0 factors over each 24h and 7d.

A report stated in a single day U.S. strikes hit two provinces in Iran, leaving one particular person useless and a number of other others wounded. The headline framed the incident as a contemporary escalation, which serves because the rapid catalyst merchants are mapping into ceasefire timing odds.

Odds Snapshot: $1.49M Quantity Places “Ceasefire by Aug 31” at 58.5% vs Aug 14 at 43.0% and Jul 31 at 31.5%

It is a price-ladder (deadline ladder) market: every strike is a separate “ceasefire by X date?” contract, so the label is a cutoff, not a settlement worth or a single sure/no occasion. The August 31 line leads at Sure 58.5% / No 41.5%, whereas nearer deadlines commerce a lot decrease—August 14 sits at Sure 43.0% / No 57.0% and July 31 at Sure 31.5% / No 68.5%, with the very close to July 18 at Sure 0.3% / No 99.7%. The 24-hour and 7-day change are each +5.0 factors with “robust” momentum and “strengthening” consensus, implying merchants are converging on a ceasefire state of affairs however discounting a quick turnaround inside days. At $1.49M in quantity, the market is actively updating, and the step-down from 58.5% (Aug 31) to 43.0% (Aug 14) quantifies how a lot chance merchants assign particularly to a two-week pause versus a later de-escalation window. The decision timestamp (2026-08-31 23:59 UTC) makes the ultimate strike the important thing settlement boundary, whereas earlier strikes perform as tradable estimates of timing reasonably than a single binary consequence.

Watch whether or not odds raise on the sooner rungs (July 24, July 31, August 14) or keep focused on August 31; that break up is the cleanest learn on whether or not merchants are shifting from “ultimately” to “quickly” forward of the 2026-08-31 23:59 UTC decision.

What Merchants Watch Subsequent on Polymarket: Earlier Deadline Rungs (Jul 24/Jul 31/Aug 14) vs the Aug 31 Anchor Contract

Zooming out from the ceasefire timing ladder, merchants are additionally benchmarking the knock-on situations that may reprice the entire advanced throughout Polymarket. Huge consideration is on 97.75% No in “Strait of Hormuz site visitors returns to regular by July 31?” ($18,719,328 quantity, +39.75pp), 78.5% No in “Will the U.S. invade Iran earlier than 2027?” ($45,375,440, +10.0pp), and 42.0% main “August 31” in “Iran full airspace closure by…?” ($4,803,643, +3.0pp). Taken collectively, these facet contracts act as adjoining gauges for a way merchants are weighing transport normalization, escalation threat, and operational constraints alongside the headline ceasefire timeline.

Odds Pattern

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: US x Iran Efficient Ceasefire by…? (2 week pause)
• Contract kind: Value strike ladder: every rung has separate Sure/No; Sure means the spot worth is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Decision window: Aug 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Standing: Energetic (open for buying and selling)
• Quantity: ~$1,488,626

High strike rungs

+1 extra strikes not proven

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