The probabilities of the U.S. Securities and Trade Fee approving spot cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds for Solana, Litecoin and XRP in 2025 have elevated to 95%, Bloomberg ETF analysts James Sayffart and Eric Balchunas say.
Seyffart and Balchunas shared the brand new forecasts in an up to date outlook posted on X on June 20,2025.
In addition to the excessive odds for a SEC approval for Solana (SOL), Litecoin (LTC) and XRP (XRP), different crypto ETF filings even have excessive probabilities of approval in 2025.
These embody Dogecoin, Cardano, Avalanche, Hedera and Polkadot at 90% probabilities of approval in 2025.
Seyffart and Balchunas additionally assigned a 95% chance of approval throughout the subsequent six months to crypto basket or index ETF filings by Grayscale, Hashdex, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton. Notably, many of those purposes are approaching their remaining SEC deadlines in early July.
SEC’s optimistic engagement key
Seyffart notes that their determination to lift the chances that the regulator provides a nod to a lot of the spot crypto ETF filings is all the way down to “engagement from the SEC.” The ETF analysts see developments as “a really optimistic signal.”
The SEC has already acknowledged the 19b-4 types for these purposes and sure views the underlying altcoins as commodities, the analysts famous. Additionally they pointed to Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee-regulated futures markets that exist already for a lot of of those belongings.
As for timing, analysts say approvals may arrive inside weeks or nearer to remaining deadlines later this yr. Most purposes have their remaining SEC determination dates in October and November.
“The timing of those approvals/launches is extra unsure,” Seyffart wrote on X. “Might be one thing we’re speaking about within the subsequent month or two. Or it might be one thing that waits till October or later.”
Regardless of the uncertainty round timing, the ETF consultants imagine it’s a “matter of when, not if.”
