May inflation hits 4.1% as Polymarket sees 79% odds of zero Fed cuts in 2026

Fed Cuts 2026 Polymarket: Zero-Charge-Minimize Odds Slip After 4.1% Inflation and Warsh Holds Charges Regular

After inflation rose 4.1% in Could and President Donald Trump’s advisers signaled extra endurance with new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s determination to carry charges regular, Polymarket merchants leaned additional towards fewer Fed fee cuts in 2026. In Polymarket’s “What number of Fed fee cuts in 2026?” ladder, the main final result remained zero cuts whilst its odds dipped to 79.25%.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket costs a 79.25% probability of 0 Fed fee cuts in 2026 within the “What number of Fed fee cuts in 2026?” market.
• Odds shifted decrease after recent inflation information and messaging that the White Home is giving Chair Kevin Warsh political house to maintain charges regular.
• The market resolves on 2026-12-31, with $39,079,314 matched up to now.

Some financial advisers to President Donald Trump have signaled extra endurance for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh after the Fed held rates of interest regular final week, whilst Trump has continued to name for fee cuts. A White Home official mentioned the administration shouldn’t be studying the information in a different way, however that Warsh’s arrival has modified the political dynamic and given him an extended grace interval than his predecessor. The shift comes after inflation rose 4.1% within the yr ending in Could, whereas the Fed’s most popular measure has a 2% goal, and core inflation was 3.4%. The report mentioned elevated vitality costs linked to the conflict contributed to the upper studying. Warsh mentioned the Fed was watching the information carefully and the committee opted to maintain charges regular whereas ending a long-standing plan that biased coverage towards interest-rate cuts. Almost half of Fed policymakers, in keeping with projections launched final week, anticipated rates of interest to go up this yr.

“How Many Fed Charge Cuts in 2026?” Ladder: $39.1M Matched as 0 Cuts Leads at 79.25% (1 Minimize 12.50%, 2 Cuts 3.45%)

Polymarket’s ladder is dominated by the “0 (0 bps)” rung, with Sure at 79.25% versus No at 20.75%, implying merchants nonetheless see no cuts as the bottom case regardless of a 2.85 percentage-point dip from 82.10%. Pricing falls off sharply past that: “1 (25 bps)” sits at 12.50% Sure / 87.50% No, whereas “2 (50 bps)” is 3.45% Sure / 96.55% No. Farther out, “3 (75 bps)” trades at 0.65% Sure / 99.35% No, underscoring how little likelihood the market assigns to a number of cuts. The contract has matched $39,079,314 in quantity, indicating deep liquidity concentrated close to the zero-cuts final result.

Watch whether or not the “0 (0 bps)” rung holds close to the high-70s and whether or not any sustained circulation strikes likelihood towards “1 (25 bps),” because the market approaches its 2026-12-31 decision date.

Past Fed Bets: Different Excessive-Quantity Polymarket Macro & Geopolitical Contracts Merchants Are Watching

Past longer-dated rate-cut ladders, exercise can also be clustering in nearer-term macro timing performs, with 81.5% on “No change” in “Fed Determination in July?” because the contract attracts $21,111,083 in matched quantity. Merchants typically use these front-end outcomes as a cross-check on broader threat positioning, whereas rotating into different high-velocity geopolitical and macro contracts when central-bank pricing stabilizes.

Odds Pattern

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: What number of Fed fee cuts in 2026?
• Contract kind: Value strike ladder: every rung has separate Sure/No; Sure means the spot value is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Decision window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Standing: Lively (open for buying and selling)
• Quantity: ~$39,079,314

High strike rungs

+9 extra strikes not proven

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Sources

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