DraftKings advised traders on June 9 that its prediction markets enterprise is scaling quick, and the market preferred what it noticed. The corporate’s Type 8-Okay reported that Could 2026 annualized client quantity in its Predictions providing rose 24% month over month to $1.3 billion, whereas annualized whole quantity traded climbed 34% to $3.1 billion. Shares of DraftKings jumped roughly 10% in early buying and selling on the information.
These figures are monumental for a product line that is barely six months previous, since DraftKings solely launched Predictions in December 2025. Seen towards the broader class, although, they present an organization that is arriving late to a market prediction-native platforms have already constructed into one thing far bigger.
That $3.1 billion is an annualized run fee, which interprets to roughly $258 million in precise quantity in Could. Kalshi, by comparability, processed $17.9 billion in Could alone.
The hole between DraftKings $258 million and prediction markets’ $24 billion
Prediction markets let folks commerce contracts tied to the end result of future occasions, something from elections and inflation knowledge to sports activities outcomes and crypto costs. Every contract pays out $1 if the occasion occurs and $0 if it would not, and the worth in between works like a dwell chance gauge: a contract buying and selling at 65 cents means merchants collectively give the end result a 65% likelihood.
You possibly can maintain till the occasion resolves or promote early on the going worth, simply as you’ll with a inventory. That construction basically makes these platforms behave like monetary exchanges, with order books and always transferring costs, which is a big a part of why so many firms are speeding in.
It additionally helps to decode one piece of accounting within the DraftKings announcement. “Annualized” means the corporate took one month of exercise and multiplied it by 12, which is a normal technique to present momentum however makes the headline quantity 12 instances larger than what really occurred.
Strip that out, and DraftKings dealt with about $258 million of buying and selling in Could. The established platforms function on a special scale solely. Mixed month-to-month buying and selling quantity on Kalshi and Polymarket, the 2 greatest names, climbed from underneath $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion in April 2026, in accordance with a Pew Analysis Heart evaluation.
Could knowledge, launched after the Pew research, confirmed the 2 platforms transferring in reverse instructions: Kalshi notched its ninth straight month-to-month document at $17.91 billion, whereas Polymarket fell to $7.08 billion, its second consecutive month-to-month decline.
For perspective, all authorized US sportsbooks mixed took in round $14 billion in wagers per 30 days throughout 2025. The prediction markets class DraftKings simply entered already strikes extra money than the trade DraftKings got here from.
Nonetheless, it is vital to notice that each platform measures quantity in a different way. Robinhood skips {dollars} altogether and stories the variety of contracts traded, a determine that sounds astronomical as a result of contracts virtually at all times value lower than a greenback every.
Its CEO, Vlad Tenev, stated over 12 billion contracts had been traded on the platform in 2025 and predicted the enterprise may ultimately drive “trillions” in annual quantity, whereas Deutsche Financial institution counted greater than 16 billion contracts up to now in 2026. The measures differ, however each model of the mathematics results in the identical place: DraftKings’ Could quantity is roughly what Kalshi strikes in every week.
Sports activities are the engine pulling all of this ahead, which explains why a sportsbook felt compelled to point out up. Sports activities alone account for roughly 80% of Kalshi’s quantity, and along with politics and crypto, it has pushed about 91% of Kalshi’s exercise and 90% of Polymarket’s since July 2024, as CryptoSlate has reported.
DraftKings timed its disclosure nicely, touchdown days into the 2026 World Cup and simply after the NBA Finals, and one estimate put potential World Cup prediction market exercise as excessive as $2.5 billion.
What the sportsbooks are actually chasing
Either side of this combat has weapons that the opposite lacks. Sportsbooks deliver hundreds of thousands of present prospects, well-known manufacturers, cost infrastructure, big advertising budgets, and years of expertise in pricing dwell odds.
The prediction-native platforms deliver deep swimming pools of merchants able to take the opposite aspect of any contract, a a lot wider menu of occasions, and, crucially, a authorized construction that lets them function the place sportsbooks cannot.
DraftKings CEO Jason Robins advised traders the corporate intends to determine a management place in sports activities predictions earlier than year-end, and the corporate has raised its estimate of the entire market it may well handle to between $55 billion and $80 billion.
That authorized construction is the entire purpose this class exists. Sports activities betting in America is ruled state by state, and every sportsbook wants a license in each state the place it operates. Occasion contracts take a special authorized route: they’re categorised as derivatives, monetary devices overseen solely by the CFTC, the identical regulator that watches over futures on oil and corn. A federal license means one approval covers the entire nation. It is how DraftKings launched Predictions in 38 states, together with a number of the place on-line sports activities betting stays unlawful.
Whether or not that route survives is now the central authorized combat in American playing. A federal appeals courtroom dominated on April 6 that Kalshi’s sports activities contracts probably fall underneath unique federal jurisdiction, shielding them from New Jersey’s playing enforcement.
Ten days later, a special appeals courtroom, listening to Nevada’s case, appeared inclined to rule the alternative manner. If the courts break up, the Supreme Court docket normally has to settle it, and prediction market merchants themselves worth a 64% likelihood the excessive courtroom takes a case by year-end.
In the meantime, the enforcement retains escalating in each instructions: the CFTC sued Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois in April to cease them from going after Kalshi and Polymarket, courts in Maryland and Massachusetts have sided with state regulators, Kalshi faces greater than a dozen federal lawsuits, and CryptoSlate’s reporting exhibits the identical rigidity spreading overseas, from person probes in South Korea to platform blocks in Brazil.
The following ruling to observe comes from the Sixth Circuit, the place Kalshi is interesting an Ohio determination that went towards it, and the coalition lining up towards the corporate there simply elevated.
Former CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler, who ran the company when Dodd-Frank was carried out in 2010, filed an amicus temporary on June 11 arguing Congress by no means supposed his company to develop into a nationwide sports-betting regulator, and that sports activities bets will not be swaps underneath the regulation he helped write.
He filed alongside the American Gaming Affiliation, 30 Native American tribes, the Indian Gaming Affiliation, and Higher Markets. In a parallel Massachusetts case, 38 state attorneys common have already lined up behind the state.
The break up additionally runs by the sportsbook trade itself. DraftKings and FanDuel stop the AGA in November 2025, days earlier than DraftKings launched Predictions, after the commerce group moved to bar members that function prediction markets. The identical affiliation is now arguing in courtroom that the product DraftKings simply constructed is against the law playing.
There’s yet one more factor value understanding earlier than taking any of those numbers at face worth: quantity is how a lot cash modifications palms, however income is the small slice the platform retains. The slice comes from charges of some cents per contract, so a billion {dollars} in buying and selling would possibly produce only some million in precise revenue.
The entire sector generated about $31 million in charges in April, and Polymarket collected $29 million of it regardless of trailing Kalshi badly on quantity, as a result of its merchants place bigger bets. DraftKings hasn’t stated how a lot its Predictions quantity earns, so its $3.1 billion run-rate solely measures traction, and the revenue query stays open.
DraftKings’ prediction markets development is big, and the 34% month-to-month soar is the sort of quantity that strikes a inventory. However the extra vital level is that legacy sportsbooks are following a class they did not invent, one the place Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood have already proven that occasion contracts can generate billions in month-to-month quantity and have spent years constructing each the buying and selling depth and the authorized arguments to defend it.
Whether or not DraftKings can flip its sports activities viewers into exchange-style merchants earlier than these platforms develop too liquid to catch is the open query, and the reply will say an incredible deal about whether or not the sportsbook mannequin absorbs prediction markets or will get absorbed by them.
