In a worldwide investor survey from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode, 1 in 4 establishments agreed that crypto has now entered a bear market. But nearly all of establishments nonetheless stated Bitcoin was undervalued, and most stated that they had held or elevated publicity since October.
That discrepancy issues as a result of it captures how establishments are positioning proper now: warning in regards to the regime, a willingness to remain allotted, and a desire for concentrating threat in Bitcoin quite than in smaller, extra risky tokens that may unwind shortly when leverage comes out.
A bear market label, a worth bid
The report’s market framing explains why the paradox exists.
October’s deleveraging did actual harm to altcoin value motion, however Bitcoin dominance barely moved, edging from 58% to 59% within the fourth quarter of 2025.
That stability issues as a result of it exhibits the promoting wasn’t evenly distributed. It was a washout within the lengthy tail greater than a broad rejection of crypto, with Bitcoin appearing just like the asset you retain if you’re reducing threat however not exiting the class.
David Duong, Coinbase Institutional’s international head of analysis, supplied a clear option to reconcile the “bear market” language with “undervalued” conviction in an interview for CryptoSlate.
His level was that establishments typically use cycle labels to explain regime and positioning, whereas “worth” is a longer-horizon evaluation tied to adoption, shortage, construction, and the coverage backdrop.
“When establishments assess Bitcoin’s worth, they appear past near-term value motion to components equivalent to adoption, shortage, bettering market construction, and clearer regulatory frameworks.
Traditionally, bear markets typically sign durations of tighter liquidity and weaker sentiment that in the end lay the inspiration for renewed institutional participation and future progress.
In different phrases, when an investor calls this a bear market (and that’s not our view, by the best way), they’re describing the part of the cycle and prevailing threat urge for food.
Positioning could also be defensive, liquidity is selective, and value motion may both be trending decrease or chopping with a damaging skew.
They’re speaking in regards to the regime we’re buying and selling in proper now, not the place they assume Bitcoin ought to in the end settle.”
The report’s personal information strains up with that interpretation. It exhibits a market that has stopped rewarding indiscriminate risk-taking however hasn’t misplaced the bid for the most important property.
Coinbase and Glassnode say perpetual futures have been hit hardest, with their systematic leverage ratio falling to three% of the entire crypto market cap (excluding stablecoins).
On the identical time, choices open curiosity spiked as merchants rushed to defend towards additional value weak spot.
As an establishment, in case your intuition is that it’s a bear market, you purchase insurance coverage, cut back liquidation threat, and preserve the publicity you continue to need via automobiles that gained’t power you out on the worst attainable time.
From perps to safety
The simplest mistake to make right here is to deal with “undervalued” as a single valuation mannequin that everybody shares.
In follow, each the report and Duong describe a bundle of assumptions that appears extra like market construction than a neat discounted money move argument.
Begin with what modified in derivatives.
The report says BTC choices OI has overtaken perpetual futures OI, with the 25-delta put-call skew in optimistic territory throughout 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day expiries, and that doesn’t occur in a market that’s attempting to maximise upside via leverage.
It occurs in a market that’s prepared to remain lengthy, however decided to outline threat.
Duong described the identical migration to choices when requested what establishments did after October’s liquidation reset:
“Institutional curiosity in increasing on-chain remained after the October reset, however in a measured, multi-venue manner.
Furthermore, establishments more and more expressed views by way of choices and foundation trades, which give convexity or carry with out the identical liquidation threat that drove the October transfer.”
That final line is the important thing, and it exhibits that establishments modified how they take publicity.
Choices and foundation trades aren’t headline-making methods, however they’re how knowledgeable guide stays within the recreation when the regime punishes overextension.
On-chain information is telling the identical story.
Coinbase and Glassnode say sentiment, as measured by entity-adjusted NUPL, deteriorated from Perception to Anxiousness in October and stayed there via the quarter. Whereas that’s definitely not euphoric, it isn’t capitulation both.
The drop in entity-adjusted NUPL exhibits the market stopped paying you for optimism, however continues to be hanging round. This interpretation suits a world the place traders could be cautious in regards to the present part whereas nonetheless seeing the asset as low cost relative to the place they assume the equilibrium sits.
The report additionally notes that, within the fourth quarter of 2025, BTC that moved inside three months rose by 37%, whereas BTC that remained unmoved for greater than a yr fell by 2%, which the authors interpret as a distribution part late in 2025.
If you wish to take the institutional viewpoint critically, distribution doesn’t should be a dying sentence. It could possibly imply massive holders de-risked into power, and the market is now looking for the subsequent set of arms that can personal provide without having a continuing liquidity drip.
That is the place the declare about Bitcoin being “undervalued” stops being a few single fair-value quantity and begins being in regards to the perception that Bitcoin has develop into the one asset in crypto that may take in capital in measurement without having a retail bid to carry the construction collectively.
Duong explicitly separated Bitcoin’s underwriting framework from the remainder of the crypto market:
“In contrast to retail individuals, who typically give attention to short-term value actions and market cycles, establishments place much less emphasis on timing and extra on Bitcoin’s long-term worth proposition.
On this context, Bitcoin is more and more handled as a strategic, store-of-value asset and macro hedge, quite than a speculative token throughout the broader crypto universe.”
That maps onto what the report says about large-caps versus small-caps.
Their topline view for the primary quarter of 2026 favors larger-cap tokens, with smaller caps nonetheless coping with October’s aftermath.
Given this, seeing Bitcoin as “undervalued” could also be much less about it being low cost in isolation and extra about it being the one crypto asset that establishments can deal with as a sturdy allocation when the regime is unfriendly.
Liquidity is the true cycle
The second pillar of the paradox is the time horizon.
Calling one thing a bear market is often a shorter-window judgment, whereas calling one thing undervalued is usually a longer-window judgment. The bridge between them is whether or not establishments nonetheless imagine the market is dominated by a four-year clock, or whether or not they have moved towards a macro framework the place liquidity, charges, and coverage do many of the work.
Duong’s view is that the four-year cycle nonetheless exists as a behavioral reference level, however establishments don’t deal with it as a tough mannequin.
He argued that the halving has much less energy for establishments when you management for the macro variables that drive all threat property:
“In our conversations with these entities, the four-year cycle continues to be a reference level, however principally as a behavioral template quite than a tough mannequin.
They’ll have a look at the place we’re relative to prior cycle lows/highs, halving dates, and typical drawdown/restoration patterns, as a result of these ranges matter for positioning and sentiment.
That stated, the proof that halvings causally drive every cycle is weak: we solely have 4 observations, they usually’re closely confounded by massive macro and coverage shifts (QE, COVID stimulus, and so forth.).
In our 2026 Outlook, we explicitly argue the financial relevance of the halving is considerably specious when you management for liquidity, charges, and greenback dynamics.”
The report factors to December CPI holding at 2.7%, and cites the Atlanta Fed GDPNow projecting 5.3% actual GDP progress for the fourth quarter of 2025. It outlines a base case the place the Fed delivers the 2 charge cuts (50 bps whole) priced into fed funds futures, which the authors view as a tailwind for threat property.
Additionally they flag a cooling jobs market, with 584,000 jobs added in 2025 versus 2 million in 2024, they usually title AI adoption as one driver of that moderation.
You don’t want to purchase each macro inference to see what’s taking place: the institutional view of Bitcoin being “undervalued” is constructed on a macro-and-liquidity scaffold quite than a pure crypto-cycle scaffold.
The report’s liquidity part makes that specific with a customized World M2 index that Coinbase says leads Bitcoin by 110 days and exhibits a 0.9 correlation with BTC’s strikes throughout many look-back home windows. In case you settle for that framing, the paradox turns into simpler to know.
You may have a look at the regime, see the scars from October, see a market that also needs draw back safety, and nonetheless conclude that Bitcoin sits in a positive long-duration setup if coverage and liquidity do what you anticipate them to do.
Solely then does “bear market” develop into an outline of how the market behaves right now, and “undervalued” turns into an announcement about how that market reprices as soon as the macro inputs flip extra supportive.
So what would break this thesis?
Duong rejected the concept that a routine pullback could be sufficient and as an alternative pointed to a cluster of macro and on-chain circumstances that must fail collectively:
“Establishments aren’t anchoring on value alone, they’re anchoring on macro liquidity circumstances and onchain market construction.
The clearest sign that they is likely to be fallacious wouldn’t be a routine pullback, however a breakdown within the elementary drivers of that thesis.
In different phrases, it wouldn’t be one sign alone, nevertheless it must be a cluster of alerts.
For instance, if macro liquidity circumstances have been to show decisively towards threat property, if onchain accumulation metrics have been to reverse, if long-term holders have been distributing into weak spot, and if institutional demand indicators have been to pattern persistently damaging, that mixture may meaningfully problem the view that Bitcoin is undervalued or structurally supported at current.”
The survey numbers recommend establishments are cut up on what part the market is in, however aligned on Bitcoin’s relative attraction.
The report’s charts present how that perception expresses itself in actual positioning: much less reliance on fragile leverage, extra use of choices for outlined threat, and a market that has cooled with out totally breaking.
Duong’s solutions add connective tissue to this thesis that exhibits “undervalued” is a framework anchored to liquidity, construction, and time horizon, not a vibe verify of the market.
Whether or not establishments find yourself proper relies upon much less on successful a short-term argument about cycle labels and extra on whether or not that framework holds collectively when the subsequent macro take a look at arrives.
