Groundhog Day for Bitcoin: six extra weeks of macro winter?
Bitcoin acquired its personal Groundhog Day second as we speak as Punxsutawney Phil “noticed his shadow” on the one hundred and fortieth Anniversary of the celebration and signaled six extra weeks of winter, simply after BTC slid to $74,000 in a pointy risk-off transfer.
The coincidence was becoming: a cocktail of pressured liquidations, ETF outflows, and rising actual yields advised crypto may very well be going through an prolonged stretch of macro chill and elevated volatility heading into the March FOMC.
As of press time, Bitcoin has rebounded barely to round $77,500 as a selloff in cross-asset danger met crypto’s 24/7 market construction.
Complete crypto liquidations broke above $2 billion over the weekend, with over $800 million within the final 24 hours alone.
The sturdy takeaway for the subsequent a number of weeks is that Bitcoin continues to behave like levered danger publicity when the {discount} price and the greenback reprice shortly.
The episode is one other stress take a look at for the “digital gold” narrative. That’s very true when gold holds up higher throughout risk-off stretches, and Bitcoin trades extra according to long-duration danger.
ETF flows and liquidation dynamics
Flows have been the clear, day by day read-through on marginal demand.
Farside Traders’ ETF totals present repeated massive internet outflows into late January, together with a number of classes that eliminated a whole bunch of thousands and thousands of {dollars} of spot demand in a single day.
That issues as a result of when ETFs are redeeming, dips don’t have the identical mechanical bid. Any liquidation cascade may journey additional in thinner order books.
| Date (2026) | US spot BTC ETF complete internet circulation (US$m) |
|---|---|
| Jan. 16 | -394.7 |
| Jan. 21 | -708.7 |
| Jan. 29 | -817.8 |
| Jan. 30 | -509.7 |
Macro anchors have been additionally shifting in opposition to duration-sensitive property into that window.
Buying and selling Economics put the U.S. 10-year nominal yield round 4.24–4.26% on the Jan. 30 shut. StreetStats confirmed the 10-year TIPS actual yield round 1.93% on the identical reference level.
In apply, that real-yield stage tends to boost the hurdle price for property priced on future adoption or liquidity circumstances. It additionally tightens the vary for speculative leverage to persist with out periodic resets.
| Macro reference (Jan. 30 shut) | Stage |
|---|---|
| U.S. 10-year nominal yield | ~4.24–4.26% |
| U.S. 10-year actual yield (TIPS) | ~1.93% |
Coverage-regime uncertainty has been a part of the repricing narrative.
Headlines round Kevin Warsh and Federal Reserve management, feed into the next danger premium throughout markets tied to perceptions of Fed independence and the inflation path.
Crypto tends to specific that uncertainty with extra drive as a result of leverage is less complicated to use. Liquidity additionally thins exterior U.S. hours, and liquidations are computerized as soon as collateral thresholds are hit.
That’s the reason liquidations ought to be handled because the transmission mechanism relatively than the foundation trigger.
Macro repricing units the route. Worth then falls into thinner liquidity, liquidations add provide, and the transfer extends.
What to observe into the March FOMC
For the “six extra weeks” framing, essentially the most actionable guidelines is whether or not the marginal bid returns earlier than the subsequent main coverage waypoint.
In a 2- to 6-week window:
- Sustained ETF inflows could be the clearest mechanical shift. Which means not a single inexperienced day, however a run that offsets the late-January tempo of redemptions.
- Whether or not actual yields drift decrease from the ~2% space, which would cut back discount-rate strain on danger property.
- Whether or not implied volatility mean-reverts after the flush. Deribit’s DVOL index moved from roughly 37 to above 44 through the selloff week. A DVOL stage a bit above 44 maps to an approximate 30-day anticipated transfer close to ±13% utilizing a typical rule of thumb (annualized volatility divided by the sq. root of 12).
That leaves room for a further two-way value journey even when headlines cool. Two paths comply with from the identical set of gauges.
- If ETF totals stay internet unfavourable throughout a number of classes and actual yields keep close to latest ranges, Bitcoin can maintain buying and selling as levered danger beta into March. Rallies may very well be capped by redemption-led provide and lingering hedging demand in choices.
- If ETF flows stabilize and macro stops tightening on the margin, the post-liquidation reset can scale back forced-selling danger. That may enable spot demand to set the tape once more relatively than cascades setting the tempo.
The calendar gives a clear endpoint for the Groundhog Day metaphor. The following Federal Open Market Committee assembly is scheduled for March 17–18, 2026.
