Bitcoin (BTC) rewards traders probably the most who maintain it for no less than three years, in line with knowledge shared by André Dragosch, head of analysis at Bitwise Europe.
Key takeaways:
Holding BTC for no less than three years has traditionally slashed losses to simply 0.70%.
Bitcoin worth predictions for 2026–2027 cluster round $100,000–$150,000 in bullish situations.
Lengthy-term Bitcoin holders hardly ever lose
A Bitwise evaluation reviewed Bitcoin’s worth historical past between July 17, 2010, and Feb. 11, 2026, concluding that the likelihood of being within the crimson drops to simply 0.70% when BTC is held for no less than three years.
In different phrases, almost all rolling three-year entry factors in Bitcoin’s historical past ended up worthwhile. Past three years, the danger of loss fell even additional: 0.2% over 5 years and 0% over ten years.
Merchants holding Bitcoin for lower than three years confronted a a lot increased threat of loss.
Intraday patrons, as an illustration, had a 47.1% likelihood of being underwater. That likelihood stayed elevated at 44.7% over one week, 43.2% over one month, and 24.3% over a one-year holding interval.
Stronger arms are 90% in revenue already
The realized worth metric additionally reveals declines in holders’ losses over multi-year home windows.
As of Saturday, Bitcoin was down by roughly 50% from its October 2025 excessive, buying and selling for round $65,000.
That was means above its three-to-five-year realized worth of $34,780, that means traders who purchased and held by that window have been nonetheless sitting on an roughly 90% revenue.
In the meantime, some merchants argue the continuing Bitcoin worth correction may prolong towards $30,000.
A transfer to that degree would wipe out a lot of the cohort’s cushion, pushing the three–5 12 months band nearer to breakeven. That will additional take a look at whether or not these holders begin including to promote strain or sit tight.
Conversely, most merchants who purchased Bitcoin up to now two years have been underwater.
The price foundation of the 6m–12m cohort, entities which have been holding BTC for as much as a 12 months, was round $101,250, leaving them with roughly a 35% in unrealized loss as of Saturday.
Nevertheless, the 1y–2y cohort’s value foundation was decrease, round $78,150, translating into a couple of 15% unrealized loss.
The hole bolstered the identical sample seen within the holding-period knowledge: the longer the holding window, the smaller the drawdown tends to be throughout corrections.
How excessive can BTC worth go?
Longer-term forecasts nonetheless cluster round a handful of upside targets for 2026–2027.
As an illustration, world brokerage agency Bernstein maintained its $150,000 BTC worth name for 2026, pointing to comparatively modest web outflows of about 7% from spot Bitcoin ETFs, whilst BTC’s worth fell by 50%.
“The present Bitcoin worth motion is a mere disaster of confidence,” Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani mentioned.
Normal Chartered, in the meantime, warned of a possible “ultimate capitulation” part that would drag BTC towards $50,000 amid weak ETF flows and a harder macro backdrop, earlier than recovering towards $100,000 by the top of 2026.
Wanting into 2027, Timothy Peterson’s historic “common return” framework factors to $122,000 by early 2027, with excessive odds that BTC trades above that determine.
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