itcoin is prone to deeper losses as threat urge for food fades and macro strain builds, in accordance with Customary Chartered’s head of digital property analysis Geoff Kendrick.
In a notice reported on by Bloomberg, Kendrick mentioned weaker U.S. financial momentum and lowered expectations for Federal Reserve fee cuts have weighed on crypto markets. He added that falling digital-asset ETF holdings have eliminated a key supply of demand.
Kendrick warned bitcoin may drop to $50,000 and Ethereum may fall towards $1,400 earlier than stabilizing later within the yr. BTC trades close to $67,869 after reaching a 16-month low of $60,008 final week.
Customary Chartered lower its year-end bitcoin forecast by a 3rd, reducing its 2026 goal to $100,000 from $150,000. The financial institution cited deteriorating macro situations and the chance of additional investor capitulation.
Bitcoin has already suffered a serious correction, falling as a lot as 50% from its October 2025 report excessive at its worst shut on Feb. 5. Customary Chartered estimates solely half of BTC provide stays in revenue, a pointy decline although much less extreme than in prior bear cycles.
The financial institution pointed to an unsupportive interest-rate backdrop as a key headwind.
Markets have pushed again expectations for Fed easing, with buyers now on the lookout for the primary lower later within the yr. Kendrick mentioned uncertainty round future Fed management has added to warning.
ETF flows additionally stay a priority. Customary Chartered estimated bitcoin ETF holdings have dropped by nearly 100,000 BTC from their October 2025 peak. With a median buy value close to $90,000, many ETF buyers now maintain unrealized losses, elevating the possibility of further promoting strain.
Regardless of the near-term downgrade, the financial institution maintained a constructive longer-term outlook. Kendrick famous that on-chain utilization information continues to enhance and the present downturn has not triggered main platform failures, in contrast to the 2022 cycle that noticed collapses akin to Terra/Luna and FTX.
Customary Chartered continues downgrading Bitcoin
Again in December of final yr, Customary Chartered halved its forecasts, seeing Bitcoin at $100,000 by end-2025 and $150,000 by end-2026, whereas preserving a $500,000 goal pushed out to 2030. Bitcoin didn’t hit $100,000 by the tip of 2025.
The financial institution cited fading company treasury demand and slowing ETF flows on the time. Geoffrey Kendrick mentioned company accumulation has “run its course,” leaving ETF inflows as the primary driver.
Bitcoin is at present buying and selling close to $67,000, per Bitcoin Journal Professional information.
