Bitcoin shed 14% in seven days, sliding to ranges not seen since February, as a convergence of institutional outflows, leverage liquidations, geopolitical strain, and a shock sale from Technique rattled digital asset markets.
But Normal Chartered’s international head of digital belongings analysis, Geoff Kendrick, informed shoppers the bear market could also be in its closing levels — and that the low is “nearly in.”
“I believe after we look again on the finish of 2026 with BTC at $100k… we’ll say this was the shopping for zone all of us needed,” he wrote.
Bitcoin traded round $63,739 on Wednesday, down from a 24-hour excessive of $67,416.50, after touching a session low close to $61,463 — the primary time it breached that threshold for the reason that February crash. The decline positioned BTC roughly 51% beneath its all-time excessive of $126,277, set in October 2025.
The set off that broke market confidence got here from a Monday SEC submitting. Technique disclosed the sale of 32 Bitcoin between Might 26 and Might 31, producing roughly $2.5 million at a median value of $77,135 per coin.
The transaction represented the agency’s first web discount of its Bitcoin holdings in years — a break from co-founder Michael Saylor’s well-known “by no means promote” posture . The sale was executed to fund dividend obligations on Technique’s STRC most well-liked shares, which carry an annual variable dividend of 11.5%.
The market response was sharp. Bitcoin fell beneath $72,000 the identical day because the SEC submitting. Technique’s personal inventory dropped close to 6%, and STRC shares traded round $94 .
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are recording a 13 consecutive day streak of web outflows — the longest run for the reason that merchandise launched in early 2024. Complete withdrawals reached roughly $3.45 billion throughout that stretch. The week ending Might 29 alone noticed $1.42 billion in web outflows, the third-largest weekly withdrawal on file.
For the complete month of Might, cumulative spot ETF outflows reached $2.30 billion, making it the worst month of 2026.
Kendrick’s three bitcoin pillars
In opposition to this backdrop, Kendrick laid out three causes he believes the market is close to a ground.
First, Technique’s habits in 2022 gives a precedent. When the agency final bought Bitcoin in December of that 12 months, it bought greater than it bought two days later. Kendrick stated he expects the identical sample to repeat — with a possible buyback of as much as 100 instances the 32 BTC bought.
A confirmed buy as early as subsequent Monday would, in his view, function a tentative sign that the low is in.
Second, spot ETF holdings have held up higher than feared. The cumulative web influx since inception stays at $54.2 billion — proper the place it stood earlier within the 12 months. Complete BTC held by the 11 U.S.-listed funds sits at roughly 674,000 BTC, down from a peak close to 682,000 however broadly unchanged in structural phrases.
“This tells me that ETF holdings are extra structurally robust than I had feared in February,” Kendrick stated.
Third, the pool of leveraged longs obtainable for liquidation is smaller than in prior drawdowns. Bitcoin futures bets value $1.5 billion had been liquidated by exchanges through the present sell-off, a determine in step with January’s.
With BTC already underperforming equities by means of 2026, compelled promoting danger has diminished.
Macro Headwinds Persist
Kendrick’s long-term targets stay $100,000 for Bitcoin by year-end.
