Fast Take
Bitcoin ETFs have garnered vital consideration in 2024, amassing over $17 billion in web inflows.
Senior Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas means that with out the success of Bitcoin ETFs, the digital property’s value would hover round $20,000 as a substitute of the present $60,000. He argues that ETF exercise has been a key driver in Bitcoin’s value surge.
“Take the ETFs away from image and btc value might be round $20k”.
Nonetheless, I disagree with Balchunas’s evaluation. I’ve emphasised that the quantity of Bitcoin ETFs is comparatively minor in comparison with the futures market, which performs a extra substantial function in influencing Bitcoin’s value.
As of Aug. 12, the futures buying and selling quantity has reached $74 billion, considerably surpassing the ETF buying and selling quantity, which stands at $1.3 billion, in response to knowledge from checkonchain.

I align extra carefully with the views of Checkmate, a well-respected analyst within the Bitcoin area. He highlights that web capital flows within the Bitcoin market quantity to roughly $12 billion per thirty days, with long-term holder provide modifications round $1.6 billion, considerably bigger than any given ETF influx or outflow per thirty days.
In essence, whereas ETFs are influential, they don’t seem to be the first pressure driving Bitcoin’s market. As Checkmate succinctly places it,
“At greatest, the ETFs are 20% of the affect. They’re vital, however not the motive force”.
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