On Dec. 3, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Younger Ju made the dreaded name that “most Bitcoin on-chain indicators are bearish.”
He added, “With out macro liquidity, we enter a bear cycle.”
The CEO was specific. He tied his argument to his agency’s composite on-chain dashboards and a global-liquidity framework, framing the November drawdown not as a wholesome correction however because the opening act of a brand new secular downtrend.
The query is whether or not on-chain knowledge and the liquidity backdrop really assist a bear cycle thesis, or whether or not Ki is studying stress indicators in a bull market as the beginning of crypto winter.
The case for a brand new bear cycle
CryptoQuant’s metrics, reminiscent of Bull Rating, MVRV, miner flows, and stablecoin liquidity, sign a brand new bear-market cycle. The numbers examine with the primary quarter of 2022, which Glassnode additionally reported on Dec. 3.
Moreover, excessive realized losses, declining liquidity, and a break under short-term holder value foundation add to the tense state of affairs.
Beginning with MVRV (market worth to realized worth), which is a ratio that compares Bitcoin’s market cap to its realized cap and weights every coin by the worth at which it final moved on-chain.
When MVRV pushes above 3.5, the market is traditionally in euphoria territory. When it falls under 1.0, the market is buying and selling under its mixture value foundation and is usually at a bear market backside.
As of press time, MVRV sits round 1.8-2.0. That’s properly off euphoric highs but additionally properly above the sub-1.0 ranges that marked the bottoms in 2018, 2020, and 2022.
The bear cycle camp reads this as a market that has cooled however has not but reached the deep worth zone. If MVRV compresses towards 1.0, that may verify a traditional bear trajectory.
The SOPR (spent output revenue ratio) tells the same story. SOPR measures whether or not on-chain cash are being bought at a revenue or a loss.
When SOPR is above 1.0, the typical coin bought is worthwhile. When it drops under 1.0, the typical coin is underwater.
November’s sell-off pushed SOPR under 1.0 for the primary time since summer time, signaling that short-term holders have been realizing losses.
The depth and period have some analysts evaluating it to early 2022, when SOPR stayed suppressed for months.
The RHODL (realized cap HODL) waves break down Bitcoin’s realized cap by age cohorts. When long-term holders begin spending at elevated charges, it sometimes indicators a high.
Latest RHODL knowledge present long-term holder provide has been declining since mid-year, a sample according to distribution into energy.
The November correction accelerated that pattern, with older cohorts transferring cash on-chain at costs above $90,000.
Miner flows add one other layer. Miners are structurally lengthy Bitcoin and have a tendency to carry throughout bull markets. When miner outflows spike, it indicators stress.
CryptoQuant’s miner reserve knowledge exhibits reserves have been declining since October, and miner pockets balances hit multi-year lows in late November.
Lastly, stablecoin liquidity. The bear cycle camp factors to declining stablecoin provide on exchanges as an indication that dry powder is leaving the system. The overall stablecoin market cap has been flat to down since mid-November.
With out contemporary fiat-backed liquidity prepared to purchase dips, Bitcoin lacks gasoline for an additional leg up.
The center floor: deep correction, not secular bear
Others see the identical stress however cease wanting calling a accomplished cycle high.
SOPR, realized-price bands, and MVRV are not in an euphoric zone. But, traditionally, classical bear market bottoms happen a lot nearer to the mixture realized worth than in the present day’s ranges.
Moreover, ETF outflows and diminished stablecoin liquidity helped drive the worst two-month drawdown since mid-2022. But, Glassnode’s MVRV Z-Rating remains to be not in oversold territory, and whale accumulation round $90,000 suggests the market is at an inflection level reasonably than clearly in a brand new secular downtrend.
This camp acknowledges the indications have cooled however argues the market remains to be structurally completely different from prior bear cycles. Bitcoin has not damaged its mixture realized worth, which sits round $50,000 to $55,000.
Derivatives open curiosity reset from $46 billion to $28 billion, flushing out overleveraged longs and setting the stage for a cleaner rally if liquidity improves.
The bull market reset thesis
A Glassnode-based roundup framed the late-November drop into the low-$80,000s as “2025’s strongest BTC purchase zone,” noting dense realized-price clusters the place long-term holders re-added publicity after compelled liquidations and derivatives open curiosity washed out.
Trakx’s Nov. 28 month-to-month assessment says November’s slide “appears like a standard bull cycle pullback, not a brand new bear market,” arguing that so long as international liquidity continues to rise, the broader digital-asset bull pattern ought to stay intact.
Moreover, open curiosity has reset, and ETF inflows resumed with a modest $50 million aggregated internet influx for December as of Dec. 3.
On this backdrop, a rising stablecoin provide might assist a push again by means of the $93,000 to $96,000 resistance zone if the Fed delivers.
World internet liquidity: the lacking variable
That is the place Ki’s name hinges. He argues that “with out macro liquidity, we enter a bear cycle,” explicitly tying on-chain stress to a deteriorating liquidity backdrop.
A Sahm Capital piece on Nov. 25 burdened that, not like prior cycles, international internet liquidity has been falling for years beneath the burden of inflation, charge hikes, and quantitative tightening, which has “suppressed cash stream and upside potential all through this cycle.”
I/O Fund’s Beth Kindig wrote this week that their mannequin exhibits international liquidity stalling and “organising for a reversal,” a sample they are saying traditionally aligns with main Bitcoin tops and suggests we’re within the last leg of the multi-year bull reasonably than the early innings.
On the opposite facet, Bitwise’s early-December outlook argues that international liquidity progress “stays sturdy” and that valuations present “no proof of a blow-off part,” explicitly utilizing that to reject a full bear-market transition.
Glassnode’s new institutional notice for the fourth quarter with Fasanara provides a extra impartial take: Bitcoin has retraced as international liquidity tightens, however the report focuses on shifting market construction reasonably than declaring a definitive macro high.
The decision: conditional bear, not confirmed
The on-chain knowledge exhibits stress. MVRV has cooled, SOPR has dipped under 1.0, long-term holders have distributed, miners have bought reserves, and stablecoin liquidity has stalled.
These are all according to the opening part of a bear market.
However they’re additionally according to a deep correction inside a bull market, particularly one during which leverage was excessive and ETF flows have been risky.
The important thing distinction is what occurs subsequent with liquidity.
If international internet liquidity continues to contract and the Fed holds charges larger for longer, Ki’s bear cycle thesis positive factors weight. If liquidity stabilizes or rebounds and ETF inflows resume, the bull reset camp wins.
Proper now, the info suggests Bitcoin is at an inflection level, not a confirmed high. The on-chain indicators are flashing yellow, not crimson. And the liquidity backdrop is contested, with credible voices on each side.
