U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs gave again almost all of their 2025 good points after hitting a cycle excessive in early October, with whole web property sliding to $120.68 billion as of Dec. 4, down $48.86 billion from the Oct. 6 peak.
The drawdown leaves the class primarily flat year-over-year, sitting simply $30 million beneath the $120.71 billion recorded on Dec. 16, 2024, emphasizing a “wipeout” yr during which large price-driven swings didn’t translate into sustained web development for the ETF advanced.
The year-to-date movement image diverged from the asset determine.
2025 web creations totaled $22.32 billion via Dec. 4, but the October-to-December value drawdown in bitcoin minimize fund property again to the place they have been a yr in the past.
Since Oct. 6, cumulative web outflows totaled $2.49 billion, a small share of the $48.86 billion in AUM decline, with the residual transfer attributable to cost and unrealized revenue and loss.
That blend frames a yr during which issuance demand continued, whereas BTC’s late-year retracement erased the asset’s good points recorded into early October.
Second-quarter creations reached $12.80 billion, and third-quarter creations added $8.79 billion, whereas fourth-quarter creations turned marginally unfavorable via Dec. 4 at $0.20 billion in web redemptions.
The newest 30-day window confirmed $4.31 billion of web outflows, indicating that This autumn cooled after a robust center a part of the yr.
Even after the fourth-quarter slowdown, cumulative web inflows since launch stood at $57.56 billion, stressing that the structural base of issued shares stays above the extent implied by value alone.
The hole between precise AUM and a flow-only counterfactual since Oct. 6 illustrates the dynamic. Ranging from the $169.54 billion peak and mechanically including solely day by day creations and redemptions yields a path that may have saved property close to that place to begin, whereas the noticed line fell with BTC’s drawdown.
The distinction between these two paths, proven within the “AUM vs flow-only” evaluation, quantifies the value or PnL part that drove the decline.
By the identical logic, evaluating right this moment’s AUM to the Dec. 16, 2024 anchor with cumulative 2025 inflows isolates the previous yr’s attribution, the place constructive flows have been offset by unfavorable value marks, leaving property close to flat.
Traders targeted on fund well being will parse the unfold between flows and efficiency to evaluate resilience, liquidity, and potential provide overhang within the major market.
The constructive 2025 flows imply licensed members created shares web throughout the yr, so the product set didn’t endure broad redemption stress till late within the yr. Value, not redemptions, explains many of the AUM reset from the October excessive.
That issues for secondary market circumstances as a result of persistent outflows would level to completely different supplier steadiness sheet masses and secondary spreads than a price-led transfer with secure share counts.
The “nothingburger” year-over-year comparability is restricted to the chosen dates, which heart on the newest legitimate row within the dataset and the prior mid-December reference.
As of Dec. 4, whole property got here in solely $30 million beneath the Dec. 16, 2024, studying, a rounding-level change for a product suite that scaled above $120 billion. The interpretation, for readers monitoring structural adoption by way of creations, is {that a} flat YoY AUM print doesn’t suggest negligible demand.
It displays that the fourth-quarter value decline countered earlier inflows. The datasets and charts included, spanning whole AUM, day by day flows, and cumulative inflows since launch, align with this decomposition.
The intra-quarter shift is seen within the day by day sequence. By means of the spring and summer season, creations clustered on robust value days, then waned into the autumn. After Oct. 6, redemptions elevated, and the 30-day web movement turned unfavorable in early December.
The magnitude remained modest relative to the overall, at $2.49 billion in web outflows over the interval, reinforcing the mechanical level that the AUM slide because the peak was primarily a operate of mark-to-market.
Under are the core figures referenced for readability.
| Metric | Worth | Date / Interval |
|---|---|---|
| Complete AUM | $120.68B | Dec. 4, 2025 |
| AUM peak | $169.54B | Oct. 6, 2025 |
| Change since peak | −$48.86B (−28.82%) | Oct. 6 to Dec. 4, 2025 |
| YoY AUM | $120.71B → $120.68B | Dec. 16, 2024 to Dec. 4, 2025 |
| 2025 YTD web flows | +$22.32B | By means of Dec. 4, 2025 |
| Flows since Oct. 6 | −$2.49B | Oct. 6 to Dec. 4, 2025 |
| Cumulative web inflows since launch | +$57.56B | By means of Dec. 4, 2025 |
| Newest 30-day web flows | −$4.31B | By means of Dec. 4, 2025 |
| Quarterly flows | Q1 +$0.93B, Q2 +$12.80B, Q3 +$8.79B, This autumn thus far −$0.20B | 2025 |
For context and reproducibility, AUM corresponds to whole web property in USD, and flows correspond to the day by day whole BTC influx.
The easy attribution of the AUM change from Oct. 6 to Dec. 4 equals web flows over the interval plus a value or PnL time period. Utilizing that decomposition, the $48.86 billion decline approximates to $2.49 billion of web outflows and about $46.37 billion of value or PnL.
The overall AUM chart exhibits the October crest and the next fade into December, the day by day flows chart exhibits Q2 and Q3 energy with This autumn softness, and the cumulative web inflows chart confirms that creations stay constructive since launch.
As framed, the headline takeaway is that 2025 introduced constructive issuance, whereas the October retracement in BTC capped the yr with property close to final December’s degree and effectively beneath the early October peak.
