Commonplace Chartered nonetheless expects the stablecoin market to achieve $2 trillion by the tip of 2028, which ought to translate into round $1 trillion in new Treasury invoice demand, the financial institution mentioned in a Monday report.
As of early 2026, the full stablecoin market capitalization is roughly $300-$320 billion.
“This may end in c. $0.8-$1.0 trillion of contemporary demand for T-bills (to be used as reserves) from stablecoin issuers over that interval,” wrote Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset analysis, and U.S. charges strategist John Davies.
Mixed with $1-$1.2 trillion in projected Federal Reserve shopping for, complete new T-bill demand might hit about $2.2 trillion by 2028, the report mentioned. That compares with roughly $1.3 trillion in internet new provide if payments’ share of complete debt stays unchanged, implying a possible shortfall of $0.9 trillion.
Stablecoin issuers resembling Tether and Circle (CRCL) have grow to be main patrons of short-term U.S. authorities debt, holding tens of billions of {dollars} in Treasury payments as reserves backing tokens resembling USDT and USDC.
Tether alone has disclosed T-bill holdings that rival these of mid-sized sovereign buyers, whereas Circle additionally retains a big share of its reserves in short-dated Treasuries by way of cash market funds.
Because the stablecoin market grows, issuers sometimes park new inflows into T-bills to earn yield whereas sustaining liquidity, successfully channeling crypto-driven capital into U.S. authorities financing and reinforcing demand on the entrance finish of the yield curve.
The Treasury mentioned in its February 4 Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) that it “is monitoring SOMA purchases of Treasury payments and rising demand for Treasury payments from the personal sector,” a pattern Commonplace Chartered expects to accentuate.
The analysts mentioned the projected extra demand offers Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent scope to carry T-bills’ share of issuance. Elevating that share by 2.5 proportion factors over three years would create about $0.9 trillion in extra invoice provide, offsetting the hole.
Reallocating that quantity from longer-dated bonds might successfully droop 30-year auctions for 3 years and ease upward stress on long-term yields, in line with the report.
Whereas not its base case, the financial institution expects the 10-year yield to achieve 4.6% by end-2026, because the analysts warned of rising dangers of front-end shortage.
Stablecoin development has just lately stalled simply above $300 billion, up from $238 billion in April 2025, as crypto costs weakened and post-GENIUS Act issuance slowed. Bitcoin has fallen greater than 50% from its $126,000 October 2025 peak, dampening trading-driven demand. Commonplace Chartered views these headwinds as cyclical and maintains that stablecoins might add almost $1 trillion in incremental T-bill demand by 2028, reshaping U.S. charge markets.
Learn extra: Commonplace Chartered sees bitcoin sliding to $50,000, ether to $1,400 earlier than restoration
