Solana’s verified X account fired a shot on Jan. 14: “Starknet has 8 every day energetic customers, 10 every day transactions, and nonetheless in some way has a 1b MC and 15b FDV[…] Ship it straight to 0.”
The information used within the ‘sh*tpost’ seems to hint again to an April 2024 snapshot, because the FDV determine was fallacious. Present CryptoSlate information exhibits Starknet’s totally diluted valuation round $900 million, not $15 billion.
Whereas overshooting the valuation is one factor, the truth that Solana’s official account known as for customers to “ship [Starknet] straight to 0” actually highlights the place the business is in 2026. A undertaking that’s in search of severe institutional cash to maneuver on chain is actively calling for the downfall of a competitor chain (albeit by way of an ‘intern’ managed social media account).
Nonetheless, the broader query holds: how do you measure the hole between what a community is price and what it truly does?
Valuation is not utilization, however some networks worth like they’ve each.
The true problem lies in separating what’s simple to inflate, akin to notional perpetual futures quantity and handle exercise, from what’s more durable to pretend: charge stress measured by way of REV (Actual Financial Worth), which mixes chain charges and MEV suggestions that customers truly pay for execution precedence.
The metric stack that issues
Market cap is split by circulating provide, whereas FDV is split by whole provide.
Exercise metrics are cut up into spot DEX quantity measuring on-chain swaps and perpetual futures quantity, which DefiLlama defines as notional traded quantity, together with leverage.
A dealer opening a $100,000 place with a $10,000 margin counts the total $100,000 towards quantity, making perp numbers massive by design and susceptible to inflation by way of zero-fee buying and selling or factors applications that reward exercise no matter real demand.
REV cuts by way of this noise by measuring what customers truly pay to make use of a series.
DefiLlama defines it as chain charges plus MEV suggestions. Excessive quantity with low REV reveals notional churn pushed by incentives moderately than natural financial exercise.
Utilizing mid-January 2026 information, we pulled 30-day spot DEX quantity and 30-day perp quantity for the highest 50 blockchain infrastructures ranked by market cap on CoinGecko.
Solana exhibits $121.8 billion in spot and $32.4 billion in perps, totaling $154.2 billion in mixed buying and selling exercise in opposition to an FDV of $90.7 billion for a ratio of 0.59.
The community’s speculative worth sits round half of 1 month’s buying and selling exercise, and its quantity is distributed throughout dozens of DEXs, together with Jupiter, Raydium, and Orca, whereas posting every day REV constantly above $1 million, with tens of millions of energetic addresses processing tens of millions of transactions.
Arbitrum exhibits $15 billion in spot and $37.8 billion in perps, totaling $52.8 billion in opposition to an FDV of $2.2 billion for a ratio of 0.04.
That appears compelling till you verify focus: Variational, a single perpetual trade, accounts for $24.9 billion of that perp quantity, representing roughly 66% of the chain’s perpetual buying and selling.
Variational launched a factors program on Dec. 17, with documentation stating that the VAR token is not stay but and that roughly 50% of the provision is earmarked for group distribution.
That is textbook “mercenary quantity,” the place merchants stack factors forward of a token launch and should reassess as soon as rewards finish, which means Arbitrum’s month-to-month quantity may drop by $20 billion if Variational’s exercise normalizes post-airdrop. Nevertheless, its spot DEX quantity and $3 billion TVL would stay intact.
Starknet tells a good sharper story with $208 million in spot however $36.4 billion in perps, totaling $36.6 billion in opposition to an FDV of $900 million for a ratio of 0.025.
Prolonged, a single perpetual trade, accounts for primarily all of Starknet’s perp quantity in near-total dominance whereas operating an ongoing factors program launched in April 2025 with weekly distributions, referral incentives, and charge reductions tied to quantity.
The true sign comes from Starknet’s 30-day chain charges sitting round $186,293 in line with DefiLlama, a tiny determine relative to $36.4 billion in month-to-month notional perp quantity that reveals excessive notional exercise with out corresponding charge stress pushed by incentives moderately than real financial demand.
Optimism exhibits $8.2 billion in spot and $6.5 billion in perps, totaling $14.7 billion, in opposition to an FDV of $8 billion, for a ratio of 0.54, with quantity distributed throughout a number of venues moderately than concentrated in single incentivized protocols.
Each Optimism and Arbitrum publish significant every day REV sometimes above $500,000 and sometimes exceeding $1 million throughout high-activity durations, demonstrating that customers pay for blockspace and execution precedence past simply farming factors.
Avalanche exhibits $4.1 billion in spot with minimal perps in opposition to an FDV of $12 billion for a ratio round 3x. As compared, Polkadot exhibits a mixed market cap of underneath $1 billion in opposition to an FDV of round $10 billion, for a ratio above 10x.
Moreover, Algorand carries an FDV close to $8 billion, with minimal exercise, leading to ratios within the double digits, as networks are priced for ecosystems that have not scaled or have seen utilization migrate elsewhere.
Low ratios sign sturdiness questions, not ensures
A low FDV-to-volume ratio would not routinely sign undervaluation or shopping for alternative however moderately poses a sturdiness query: both valuation rises as a result of quantity proves sticky and monetizable, or quantity mean-reverts when incentives fade and mercenary capital strikes on.
The reply is determined by whether or not the exercise is natural or incentive-driven and whether or not it is concentrated or distributed throughout a number of venues and use circumstances.
Arbitrum’s 0.04 ratio adjustments essentially if over 60% of its perp quantity tied to a pre-token factors program disappears after Variational’s airdrop. Nevertheless, this would not essentially harm its broader ecosystem, given substantial spot DEX quantity and TVL exceeding $3 billion.
Starknet’s 0.025 ratio faces a good sharper check given Prolonged’s full dominance and express farming incentives with weekly distributions.
Whether or not quantity persists after the factors season ends will decide if the ratio displays real alternative or a short lived distortion that collapses when incentives cease flowing, particularly given its market cap of round $454 million with solely 50.43% of provide unlocked.
Solana’s 0.59 ratio sits greater however displays quantity distributed throughout dozens of venues, with every day REV constantly exceeding that of most layer-2 blockchains, indicating sustained natural demand throughout a number of product classes moderately than dependence on any single incentivized protocol.
REV gives the clearest sign for separating actual demand from churn. If a series posts $50 billion in month-to-month perp quantity however collects $10,000 in every day charges, the quantity drives level accumulation moderately than financial demand. In distinction, networks that monetize throughput present it in charge information that scales with exercise ranges.
Focus serves as a key ahead indicator as a result of when greater than 50% of a series’s quantity ties to a single venue, that is a single protocol’s cycle moderately than broad ecosystem adoption.
When that protocol’s incentives finish, or customers migrate to raised execution elsewhere, quantity metrics compress quickly. Factors applications create short-term surges that distort metrics for months till the true check arrives after the token launch, when farmers reassess execution high quality and charge construction with out extra incentives.
Solana exhibits more healthy patterns with quantity distributed throughout main DEXs and perp exercise cut up between a number of venues, suggesting real product-market match.
Cosmos (ATOM) presents a structural edge case with FDV close to $4 billion, however ecosystem exercise is occurring on app-chains like Osmosis and dYdX moderately than the hub itself.
Which means low DEX and perp quantity do not seize precise utility centered on interchain communication and shared safety infrastructure, the place token worth derives from coordination moderately than direct buying and selling throughput.
Solana’s tweet was theater with demonstrably fallacious numbers, however the query it raised about when valuation displays what networks do versus what they may do stays price inspecting systematically.
DEX quantity, perp quantity, REV, and venue focus present quantifiable indicators that separate networks priced for present site visitors from these priced for site visitors they’re ready on or for site visitors that may disappear fully when factors cease flowing.
