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QCP Says Global Liquidity, Not Fed Cuts, Is Powering the Market

October 16, 2025Updated:October 16, 2025No Comments3 Mins Read
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QCP Says Global Liquidity, Not Fed Cuts, Is Powering the Market
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QCP Says Global Liquidity, Not Fed Cuts, Is Powering the Market

Good Morning, Asia. This is what’s making information within the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a every day abstract of high tales throughout U.S. hours and an summary of market strikes and evaluation. For an in depth overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

QCP Capital says the market has moved past easy price watching and right into a full liquidity regime, the place central-bank stability sheets and cross-border capital flows drive danger greater than the Fed’s subsequent 25 foundation factors.

“Central financial institution shopping for, de-dollarization flows, and institutional portfolio hedging have develop into the dominant forces propelling gold larger, extending its relevance nicely past the normal inflation-hedge framework,” QCP Capital wrote, noting that in final weekend’s volatility, the Bitcoin–gold correlation has climbed above 0.85, highlighting synchronized flows between the 2 asset courses.

Prediction markets are coalescing round a gradual however shallow Fed easing cycle that favors gold and digital property over high-beta danger.

On Kalshi, merchants now assign a 76% probability of precisely three price cuts in 2025, with a complete easing of 75 bps, matching JP Morgan’s baseline for a “mid-cycle, non-recessionary” path. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman’s remarks this week, calling for 2 further cuts by year-end, strengthened that trajectory.

Bitcoin is buying and selling inside that very same liquidity framework.

Kalshi merchants see a 51% chance it breaks $130,000 this yr, which might mark a brand new all-time excessive, 33% for $140,000, and simply 21% for $150,000, with even odds of touching $150,000 by mid-2026.

The market is positioning for a slow-burn rally, not a speculative surge, as easing expectations filter step by step into actual yields and greenback liquidity. Glassnode knowledge exhibits a dense cluster of name positions on the $130,000 strike, indicating that choices flows may amplify short-term strikes but in addition anchor resistance close to that stage.

The macro and on-chain alerts level in the identical route: that is no adrenaline-driven bull market, however a gradual, liquidity-fed advance that will preserve pushing property larger even with out an aggressive Fed pivot.

That’s, if the market can survive one other Reality Social publish.

Market Motion

BTC: Bitcoin is buying and selling above $110,500, down 2%, pressured by renewed U.S.–China commerce tensions and worries about international danger, whereas analysts warning that breaching the $110,000 help may open the door to a drop towards $96,500–$100,000

ETH: Ethereum is altering palms round $3,900, down about 4%, as traders cut back publicity amid macro uncertainty and crypto rout issues, whereas some stay optimistic that ETH might “catch up” to gold over time

Gold: Gold is buying and selling close to $4,141.81/oz as safe-haven demand rises amid U.S.–China flare‑ups and mounting expectations for U.S. price cuts.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose Thursday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.95%, following Wall Road positive factors pushed by robust financial institution earnings.

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