Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi view Kevin Hassett, US President Donald Trump’s Nationwide Financial Council director, as the favourite to interchange Jerome Powell as the following Federal Reserve chair.
The chances of Hassett filling the seat have spiked to 66% on Polymarket and 74% on Kalshi on the time of writing. Hassett is extensively considered as crypto‑pleasant because of his previous function on Coinbase’s advisory council, a disclosed seven‑determine stake within the trade and his management of the White Home digital asset working group.
Founder and CEO of Wyoming-based Custodia Financial institution, and a outstanding advocate for crypto-friendly rules, Caitlin Lengthy, commented on X:
“If this comes true & Hassett does turn out to be Fed chairman, anti-#crypto individuals on the Fed who nonetheless maintain positions of energy will lastly be out (properly, most of them anyway). BIG modifications can be coming to the Fed.”
Associated: Crypto-friendly Trump adviser Hassett prime choose for Fed chair: Report
Kevin Hassett’s crypto credentials
Hassett is a long-time Republican coverage economist who returned to Washington as Trump’s prime financial adviser and has now emerged because the market-implied frontrunner to guide the Fed.
His monetary disclosure reveals not less than a seven‑determine Coinbase stake and compensation for serving on the trade’s Educational and Regulatory Advisory Council, inserting him unusually near the crypto business for a possible Fed chair.
Nonetheless, crypto has been burned earlier than by studying an excessive amount of into “crypto‑literate” resumes. Gary Gensler arrived on the Securities and Alternate Fee with MIT blockchain programs below his belt, however went on to preside over a wave of excessive‑profile enforcement actions, a few of which critics branded as “Operation Chokepoint 2.0.”
A Hassett-led Fed is likely to be extra open to experimentation and fewer reflexively hostile to financial institution‑crypto exercise. Nonetheless, the establishment’s mandate on monetary stability means markets shouldn’t assume a one‑method wager on deregulation.
Associated: Caitlin Lengthy’s crypto financial institution loses attraction over Fed grasp account
Supervision pushback contained in the Fed
The Hassett odds have jumped simply because the Fed’s personal method to financial institution supervision has obtained pushback from veterans like Fed Governor Michael Barr, who earned his fame as certainly one of Operation Chokepoint 2.0’s key architects.
In accordance with Caitlin Lengthy, whereas he Barr “was Vice Chairman of Supervision & Regulation he did Warren’s bidding,” and he “has made it clear he’ll oppose modifications made by Trump & his appointees.”
On Nov. 18, the Fed launched new Supervisory Working Rules that shift examiners towards a “danger‑first” framework, directing employees to concentrate on materials security‑and‑soundness dangers somewhat than procedural or documentation points.
In a speech the identical day, Barr warned that narrowing oversight, weakening rankings frameworks and making it more durable to difficulty enforcement actions or issues requiring consideration may go away supervisors slower to behave on rising dangers, arguing that gutting these instruments could repeat pre‑disaster errors.
Days later, in Client Affairs Letter 25‑1, the Fed clarified that the brand new Supervisory Working Rules don’t apply to its Client Affairs supervision program (an space below Barr’s committee as a governor).
If prediction markets are proper and a crypto‑pleasant Hassett inherits this panorama, his Fed wouldn’t be writing on a clean slate however getting into an establishment already mid‑pivot on how onerous (and the place) it leans on banks.
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