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In a brand new analysis report shared on X, Joe Consorti, Head of Development at Theya, has dispelled ongoing rumors alleging that the Bitcoin value is being artificially held down. Consorti lays out a complete examination of on-chain knowledge, pointing to the conventional cyclical conduct of long-term holders (LTHs) and their profit-taking patterns as key drivers of bitcoin’s present buying and selling dynamic.
Is The Bitcoin Worth At present Manipulated?
One of many core arguments Consorti addresses is the suspicion that “the boring interval of consolidation” may be engineered by way of hidden market forces. In his phrases: “Claims of synthetic value suppression is a gold-era argument that doesn’t work in bitcoin, whose ledger is auditable in actual time, that means we are able to see precisely who’s shopping for and promoting by way of their very own node on the community.”
Consorti underscores that any concerted effort to artificially cap Bitcoin can be seen to on-chain observers. As a substitute, the info factors to a well-trodden sample: after accumulating BTC within the cheaper price ranges—between $15,000 to $25,000—LTHs promote parts of their holdings into larger costs, redistributing cash to new market members who proceed bidding bitcoin upward. “That is regular. Those that held for years begin offloading as value strikes larger, transferring cash to new consumers stepping in to bid the worth to even larger highs.”
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Based on Consorti, Bitcoin has now entered its 100+ day consolidation vary round $95,000—a stretch he compares to earlier multi-month consolidation phases that ultimately resolved in main value expansions.
The analysis supplies a retrospective have a look at how LTHs behaved in earlier value climbs: “LTHs amassed BTC from $15k to $25k, earlier than promoting to new market entrants (short-term holders) who bid the worth as much as the following ‘step’. They did the identical from $25k to $40k, from $40k to $65k, and from $65k to the ~$95,000 vary we discover ourselves in now.”
Consorti notes that LTHs have these days turned again into internet accumulators. Though the shift is slight, he contends this conduct often marks the tail finish of consolidation earlier than one other breakout.
The researcher additionally factors to a latest $1.4 billion Ethereum hack on Bybit—allegedly the biggest in crypto’s historical past—as an element momentarily knocking bitcoin off an try to interrupt out of its falling wedge sample. Regardless of the market disruption, bitcoin solely slipped 1.75% on the day, which Consorti says is a testomony to the main BTC’s “outright energy” and diminishing correlation to broader crypto property.
General, Consorti expects the falling wedge to “resolve itself by the primary week of March,” barring further black swan occasions. He additionally observes that Bitcoin’s present consolidation zone could stretch past 101 days, cautioning that “most ache out there” may see it lengthen to 236 days, mirroring final summer season’s protracted consolidation interval.
Consorti additionally references the potential influence of President Trump’s working group on Bitcoin, which is ready to resolve on the viability of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by the top of June. Ought to a closing choice come sooner, he suggests it could present a serious spark for the market—both bullish or bearish, relying on the end result.
Spot ETF inflows, as soon as seen as a most important propeller of Bitcoin’s value, have diminished since early January. Though they nonetheless present 7–8 determine every day inflows, these are down considerably from the 9–10 determine ranges that occurred all through final spring and fall, hinting that different market forces, equivalent to institutional and on-chain dynamics, may be extra influential on this cycle’s value motion.
One other matter is Bitcoin’s dislocation from world M2 cash provide, which had tracked the worth with uncanny accuracy for almost 18 months. That correlation broke when world M2 recommended a deeper downturn for bitcoin, but BTC continued to hover round $95,000. Now that M2 is edging upward once more on a weaker US greenback, the analysis suggests the potential for Bitcoin aligning for its subsequent leg larger.
Evaluating Bitcoin to gold with a 50-day lead likewise implies that gold’s latest trajectory could “level to an upside decision”, albeit much less exactly than M2 correlations. If this holds, a push in direction of $120,000 seems believable.
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Consorti concludes by shifting consideration to the evolving panorama of US Treasury (UST) demand. Main international holders equivalent to China and Japan have progressively decreased or flatlined their positions—China’s holdings have reached a 2009 low of $759 billion, whereas Russia has absolutely exited, and Japan stays at $1.06 trillion for 13 years. “It’s not simply China. Russia has absolutely exited USTs. Japan, the biggest international holder, has been sitting flat at $1.06 trillion for 13 years.”
In the meantime, the US Federal Reserve’s share of excellent marketable USTs has surged from 22% in 2008 to 47.3% in 2025, stepping in as international demand wanes. However a brand new participant is becoming a member of the market within the type of stablecoins, which collectively maintain about $200 billion in Treasuries to again their dollar-pegged tokens. Based on Consorti, this stablecoin demand: “May decrease long-term rates of interest. The proliferation of stablecoins and their use of Treasuries as a reserve asset means they’re functioning like a wholly new international central financial institution.”
He argues that stablecoins successfully guarantee recent demand for Treasuries, serving to the US authorities offset declining international involvement and maintain its borrowing wants. White Home AI & Crypto Czar David Sacks has publicly echoed this attitude, saying stablecoins assist keep liquidity for US debt.
At press time, BTC traded $95,645.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
