On February 28, 2026, U.S.-Israeli airstrikes struck key targets throughout Tehran, together with nuclear services, missile websites, and the Pasteur district, the place Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei resided.
Hours later, studies confirmed Khamenei’s loss of life and the deaths of different senior officers. Amid the shock, Iranians turned to bitcoin as a channel for preserving worth and transferring funds outdoors the nation’s collapsing monetary infrastructure.
On-chain knowledge compiled by Chainalysis exhibits a pointy surge in cryptoactivity from main Iranian exchanges within the hours following the strikes.
Between February 28 and March 2, roughly $10.3 million in crypto property flowed out of exchanges, a spike that mirrors patterns noticed all through 2025.
Chainalysis’ evaluation of Iran’s $7.8 billion crypto ecosystem highlighted how buying and selling volumes and withdrawals usually rise in periods of home unrest and geopolitical shocks, reflecting the actual pressures confronted by unusual residents and state actors alike.
Breaking down the outflows, Chainalysis recognized three believable drivers. First, particular person Iranians seem to maneuver funds from centralized exchanges to private wallets, searching for self-custody amid instability.
“We additionally documented how Bitcoin withdrawals from Iranian exchanges to private wallets surged throughout the newest protest wave, as residents sought a self-custodial hedge towards financial instability and potential crackdowns,” the report learn, “till authorities imposed a blanket web blackout that restricted entry to centralized platforms.”
Second, Iranian exchanges could cycle funds throughout wallets to handle liquidity or obscure operational exercise, a observe that gained urgency after a 2025 hack of Nobitex, which noticed over $90 million in property stolen.
Third, some transfers could contain state-aligned actors utilizing home platforms for cross-border commerce, sanctions evasion, or proxy financing. Within the fast aftermath, distinguishing between these motives stays troublesome, requiring deeper wallet-level evaluation over time.
The latest exercise resembles earlier occasions. Throughout January’s anti-regime protests, bitcoin withdrawals from Iranian exchanges surged in anticipation of government-imposed web blackouts, then plateaued throughout connectivity restrictions, earlier than resuming as soon as entry returned.
The February 28 airstrikes seem to have triggered an identical sample, with outflows climbing sharply within the hours following the assaults.
Surge in Nobitex crypto and bitcoin exercise
Nobitex, Iran’s largest cryptocurrency change, skilled an much more pronounced spike. Blockchain analytics agency Elliptic reported that outflows from Nobitex jumped 700 % inside minutes of the primary strikes.
Nobitex serves greater than 11 million customers and processed $7.2 billion in crypto transactions in 2025, offering Iranians with a direct conduit from rials to crypto and onward to exterior wallets.
Elliptic traced many of those funds to abroad exchanges which have traditionally acquired Iranian inflows, suggesting that residents sought to maneuver capital outdoors the nation’s crumbling banking system and worldwide sanctions framework.
The human aspect behind the numbers is hanging. For a lot of Iranians, bitcoin is clearly functioning as a hedge towards fast financial deterioration, forex collapse, and the uncertainty of conflict.
The February 28 strikes underscore cryptocurrency’s twin position: a lifeline for residents beneath duress, and a strategic software in a broader geopolitical and monetary battle.
