Prediction markets are more and more being framed not as playing platforms however as autos for monetizing info, although founders acknowledged the road can blur relying on consumer intent at Consensus Hong Kong 2026.
Ding X, founding father of Predict.enjoyable, argued that prediction markets extra carefully resemble insurance coverage underwriting or poker than roulette. “It’s extra info buying and selling and making an attempt to hedge threat, somewhat than playing,” he mentioned, distinguishing skill-based forecasting from video games the place long-term odds assure losses.
Farokh Sarmad, co-founder of DASTAN, agreed that hypothesis exists however described the sector as “a multi-trillion greenback asset class within the making.” In his view, prediction markets are merely “financializing info,” permitting contributors to monetize perception somewhat than leaving worth solely with media firms or bookmakers.
Jared Dillinger, CEO of New Prontera Group and a former skilled athlete, mentioned the classification relies upon largely on how platforms are constructed and used. “It simply is dependent upon the eyes of the beholder,” he mentioned, including that prediction markets perform as “an info asset class,” even when some customers method them like bets.
The extra urgent problem is insider buying and selling. Excessive-profile examples—from leaked leisure setlists to geopolitical developments—have underscored the chance of data asymmetry.
“Insider info will not be okay,” Sarmad mentioned, noting that blockchain transparency could make suspicious wallets seen. Nonetheless, Dillinger acknowledged enforcement limits. “There’s at all times going to be some loopholes that folks will discover.”
As buying and selling volumes rise and regulators take discover, founders agreed that surveillance instruments, clearer disclosure norms and stronger platform governance will decide whether or not prediction markets mature right into a acknowledged monetary class—or stay considered as speculative betting.
