Ethereum was cheaper than anticipated in 2020, and rollup decentralization was slower than promised in 2021. These two realities are pressured the ecosystem to rewrite what “a layer-2” is for.
Vitalik Buterin’s latest put up on Ethereum Analysis bluntly frames the shift: the unique imaginative and prescient of layer-2 (L2) blockchains as “branded shards” of Ethereum is not viable, and the ecosystem requires a brand new path.
Nonetheless, this is not abandonment. As a substitute, it’s a re-tiering of expectations and a sharper definition of what various kinds of rollups are literally constructing.
The query now could be the brand new job description, because the premise underlying the rollup-centric roadmap has weakened.
Stage 2 is scarce
L2BEAT gives the clearest framework for understanding rollup decentralization via its Phases system.
Stage 0 denotes that coaching wheels stay in place, with significant belief assumptions persisting.
Stage 1 represents partial decentralization with stronger escape hatches and proof ensures, however nonetheless significant improve or governance belief.
Stage 2 is the “no coaching wheels” milestone, through which crucial security properties are enforced by code moderately than by discretionary actors.
The present distribution of worth secured throughout the L2 ecosystem signifies this. In response to L2BEAT’s rollup scaling abstract, roughly 91.5% of the listed worth sits in Stage 1 rollups, 8.5% in Stage 0, and roughly 0.01% in Stage 2.
The highest three rollups by worth account for roughly 71% of the whole, indicating that “Stage 2 progress” largely will depend on the choices of the most important few initiatives, moderately than on what smaller experimental chains try.
The core blocker is whether or not the proof programs might be overridden and whether or not upgrades face sturdy delays and constraints.
Improve discretion stays frequent among the many largest rollups, and shifting past it has confirmed slower and harder than anticipated by the 2020-2021 optimism.
Some initiatives have explicitly said that they might not want to proceed past Stage 1, citing not solely technical constraints associated to zkEVM security but additionally regulatory necessities that require absolute management.
That is a respectable product resolution for sure buyer bases, nevertheless it clarifies that these chains usually are not “scaling Ethereum” within the sense the rollup-centric roadmap initially meant.
| Undertaking | Stage | TVS ($) | Proof kind | Improve key / safety council current? | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbitrum One | 1 | 16.16B | Optimistic | Sure | Emergency path can skip delays |
| Base Chain | 1 | 10.99B | Optimistic | Sure | Upgrades permitted by a number of events; no delay |
| OP Mainnet | 1 | 1.88B | Optimistic | Sure | Safety council instantaneous improve energy |
| Lighter | 0 (Appchain) | 1.27B | Validity | Sure | 21d delay, emergency can go to 0 |
| Starknet | 1 | 676.17M | Validity | Sure | Safety council can improve with no delay |
| Ink | 1 | 523.71M | Optimistic | Sure | Safety council + basis approvals; no common delay |
| Linea | 0 | 492.93M | Validity | Sure | Multisig can improve with no delay |
| ZKsync Period | 0 | 417.07M | Validity | Sure | Emergency board can bypass improve delays |
| Katana | 0 | 297.94M | Validity | Sure | safety council can take away the improve delay |
| Unichain | 1 | 168.81M | Optimistic | Sure | no exit window for normal upgrades; instantaneous powers |
Why the constraints modified
The Oct. 2, 2020, put up “A rollup-centric Ethereum roadmap” on the Fellowship of Ethereum Magicians laid out the unique thesis.
Fuel costs have been climbing, some purposes have been being pressured to close down, and the conclusion was that the ecosystem could be “all-in on rollups” for the close to and medium time period.
Base-layer scaling ought to prioritize knowledge capability for rollups, and customers would more and more stay on L2.
Two laborious information have shifted since then. First, L1 is considerably cheaper at current. Etherscan exhibits a seven-day common transaction price of round $0.35 and fuel snapshots within the fractions of a gwei.
On Jan. 16, Ethereum recorded an all-time excessive of two,885,524 transactions in a single day. The narrative is “busier and cheaper,” precisely the other of the 2020 disaster that motivated the rollup-centric roadmap.
Second, L1 execution capability is rising. Ethereum’s block fuel restrict was raised to roughly 60 million after broad validator signaling in late 2025, up from the long-standing 30 million restrict.
At roughly 12-second blocks, 60 million fuel interprets to roughly 5 million fuel per second.
Aspirational neighborhood discussions have talked about targets as excessive as 180 million fuel, which might characterize a threefold improve, although that is still directional moderately than dedicated.
The clear interpretation: the 2020 premise that “L1 cannot scale for many customers” is weaker in at this time’s price regime. This creates room for L2s to be a spectrum of safety and sovereignty trade-offs moderately than all being near-identical “shards” competing solely on value.
L2s as a spectrum, not clones
Buterin’s proposed reframing treats L2s as occupying a full spectrum.
On one finish are chains backed by the complete religion and credit score of Ethereum, with distinctive properties, not simply EVM clones but additionally privacy-focused programs, non-EVM execution environments, or ultra-low-latency sequencers.
On the different finish are choices with various ranges of Ethereum connectivity that customers and purposes can select primarily based on their particular wants.
The brand new minimal bar is easy: when you deal with ETH or Ethereum-issued belongings, attain not less than Stage 1.
In any other case, you are a separate L1 with a bridge, and will name your self that. The differentiation bar is tougher: be the most effective at one thing aside from “low cost EVM.”
Examples Buterin cites embody privateness, effectivity specialised to a specific utility, really excessive scaling past even an expanded L1, basically completely different designs for non-financial purposes akin to social or identification programs, ultra-low-latency sequencing, or options akin to built-in oracles or decentralized dispute decision that are not computationally verifiable.
The mechanism that may facilitate that is nonetheless beneath investigation. A “native rollup precompile” would allow Ethereum to confirm a regular zkEVM proof throughout the protocol.
For rollups which are “EVM plus extras,” this implies the canonical EVM verification happens trustlessly on the protocol stage, and the rollup solely must show its customized extensions individually.
This might allow stronger interoperability and pave the way in which for synchronous composability, through which contracts throughout completely different rollups can work together throughout the identical transaction. But, it stays a analysis trajectory, not a deployed characteristic.
The Jan. 16 put up “Combining preconfirmations with primarily based rollups for synchronous composability” and the Feb. 2 put up “Synchronous composability between rollups through realtime proving” lay out the design area however do not characterize shipped protocol modifications.
Three buckets rising
If this reframing takes maintain, count on rollups to separate into clearer classes.
The primary bucket is Stage 2-chasing settlement rollups that maximize Ethereum safety inheritance.
These initiatives intention to realize code-enforced ensures with minimal discretionary governance, treating “scaling Ethereum” as their core mandate.
The second bucket is regulated or managed execution environments.
These optimize for compliance, permissioning, or particular institutional necessities. They might by no means progress past Stage 1 by design, and they need to market that management actually as a characteristic moderately than pretending to supply full decentralization.
The third bucket is specialised chains optimized for latency, privateness, app-specific execution, or non-financial use circumstances.
Privateness rollups utilizing zkProofs to cover transaction particulars, ultra-low-latency sequencers for buying and selling purposes, or social and identification programs with basically completely different state fashions all fall inside this class.
These do not must be EVM-compatible and even monetary to justify their existence, they should present worth that their customers cannot get elsewhere.
Tasks akin to Arbitrum One, Optimism, Base, zkSync Period, and Starknet will every must determine which class they’re pursuing. The ecosystem is giant sufficient to help all three, however the assumption that each L2 performs the identical perform is fading.
What modifications for customers and builders
For customers, the burden shifts to understanding ensures. Escape hatches, improve delays, proof programs, and censorship resistance turn into product differentiators moderately than assumed properties.
Wallets and interfaces might want to label belief assumptions extra explicitly, and the L2BEAT Phases framework goals to make these assumptions legible.
For builders, “low cost EVM” is commoditized. Differentiation strikes to privateness and customized digital machines, ultra-low-latency sequencing, app-specific throughput optimizations, non-financial purposes in social, identification, or AI contexts, or compliance and permissioning as an express product, with out claiming it is “Ethereum scaling.”
For the broader market narrative, count on a louder debate about whether or not L2s “inherit Ethereum safety” in follow moderately than as an aspiration.
The critique is already a speaking level amongst rival L1 proponents, and the ecosystem’s acknowledgment that many giant rollups stay at Stage 1 with discretionary governance provides that critique better traction.
Is an L2 revolution about to begin?
Ethereum is unlikely to see an L2 revolution. As a substitute, it can witness a re-tiering.
The rollup-centric roadmap assumed that L2s could be near-identical “branded shards” competing totally on value, whereas L1 would stay costly and capacity-constrained.
That assumption not holds. L1 is cheaper and increasing, whereas L2s are diverging quicker than they’re converging of their safety fashions and use circumstances, regardless of Stage 2 decentralization.
The brand new path acknowledges that actuality. L2s that custody ETH or Ethereum-issued belongings ought to meet a minimal safety bar, Stage 1 not less than. And past that, they need to compete on specialization and express ensures moderately than pretending to be interchangeable.
Native verification primitives and analysis on synchronous composability sign the place Ethereum goals to make that simpler, however these are trajectories, not deployed options.
The job description modified.
The minimal bar is to supply credible safety when dealing with Ethereum belongings. The differentiation bar is being the most effective at one thing, and being trustworthy in regards to the belief mannequin.
The rollup-centric roadmap obtained upgraded to accommodate the truth that L1 is scaling and L2s are extra various than the unique imaginative and prescient anticipated.
