Financial institution of America forecasts US actual GDP progress of two.4% in 2026, propelled by 5 totally different tailwinds. In the meantime, JPMorgan confused numerous headwinds for the macroeconomic panorama subsequent 12 months.
The OBBBA fiscal bundle including roughly half a degree by shopper spending and capex, lagged Fed cuts boosting exercise within the second half, extra growth-friendly commerce coverage, sustained AI funding, and base results lifting measured output are listed in BofA’s forecast.
Moreover, headline PCE runs at 2.6%, core at 2.8%, unemployment drifts to 4.3%, a comfortable touchdown with mildly sticky inflation, and a Fed partway by its easing cycle.
For fairness bulls, that reads like permission to remain lengthy. For Bitcoin holders, the query is whether or not 2.4% progress arrives with the falling actual yields and increasing liquidity that traditionally gas BTC rallies, or whether or not tariffs and deficit pressures maintain the real-yield atmosphere too restrictive for a non-yielding asset to shine.
JPMorgan sketches the chance map that might flip BofA’s base case right into a bumpier journey.
The S&P 500 gained roughly 14% in 2025 on AI enthusiasm, however 2026 brings stress factors. Supreme Courtroom overview of President Donald Trump-era tariffs that generate almost $350 billion in annual income ties straight into the projected 6.2% of GDP deficit.
US-China tensions and China’s leverage over crucial minerals introduce a threat of stagflationary provide shocks. The 2026 midterms might flip the Home, elevating the chances of gridlock.
Early labor-market pressure and cost-of-living strain might sap consumption even with a optimistic GDP.
BofA and JPMorgan describe the identical canvas, modest progress, above-target inflation, partial Fed easing, however BofA leans into tailwinds whereas JPMorgan warns the setup is fragile.
Why actual yields decide Bitcoin’s path
The important thing variable for Bitcoin isn’t whether or not GDP prints 2.0% or 2.4%, however the place inflation-adjusted yields sit.
S&P World analysis finds Bitcoin has developed a transparent adverse correlation with actual yields since 2017, outperforming when coverage eases and liquidity expands.
A 21Shares evaluation argues that within the post-ETF period, BTC trades as a macro asset whose pricing displays ETF flows and liquidity slightly than simply on-chain fundamentals.
Binance’s macro explainer frames it plainly: Bitcoin “thrives when liquidity is considerable and actual yields are low or adverse,” as a result of that’s when buyers pay up for long-duration, zero-yield property.
Present real-yield ranges complicate the bullish case. Two- and 10-year TIPS yields in 2025 sit close to the highest of their 15-year ranges. When actual yields spike, money and Treasuries supply enticing optimistic actual returns.
Crypto analysts body falling actual yields because the precondition for a renewed BTC leg larger: when actual yields decline, capital rotates into progress and high-beta exposures.
Forecasts present coverage charges settling within the mid-3% vary by end-2026, implying mildly optimistic actual charges if inflation behaves as BofA tasks. That’s looser than the 2022-23 climbing peak however not 2020-style adverse territory.
The query is whether or not that gentle easing pulls actual yields down from present ranges, or whether or not tariffs and deficit pressures maintain them sticky.
ETF flows because the transmission mechanism
BlackRock’s IBIT and its friends have change into the first conduit for US Bitcoin demand.
Single-day actions will be each inflows and outflows of over $1 billion.
When actual yields fall, and the greenback softens, flows swing again into threat, and the ETFs amplify that transfer. When yields spike on tariff or deficit fears, flows can reverse simply as violently.
Simply as ETF flows can create a cushion towards retail promoting strain, the funds’ construction could make Bitcoin extra delicate to macro shifts. Conventional portfolios can now categorical a view on actual yields by BTC publicity as simply as they rotate into tech or commodities.
Moreover, Bitcoin’s correlation with risk-on sentiment has tightened. In 2022, Bitcoin adopted international liquidity down as central banks tightened. Between 2023 and 2025, it adopted liquidity again up.
If 2026 brings the clear easing BofA envisions, ETF flows assist a rally. If JPMorgan’s dangers materialize and actual yields keep elevated, those self same channels amplify the draw back.
Mapping JPMorgan’s dangers again onto the real-yield curve
JPMorgan’s tariff, China, and political dangers aren’t summary. They’re transmission channels that might maintain actual yields larger than 2.4% progress alone would recommend.
UBS evaluation warns tariffs are more likely to maintain inflation elevated into the primary half of 2026, with core PCE peaking round 3.2% and staying above 2% into 2027.
If nominal yields stay sticky whereas inflation drifts slowly decrease, the TIPS curve stays on the excessive finish of its latest vary.
That’s exactly the atmosphere analysts determine as hostile for Bitcoin: actual yields excessive sufficient that money and short-duration bonds supply enticing returns, competing straight with a non-yielding asset.
Tariff uncertainty provides one other layer. If the Supreme Courtroom upholds present buildings, income helps deficit financing however retains import inflation alive. If tariffs are rolled again, the deficit widens, probably forcing the Treasury curve larger on provide considerations.
Both end result complicates the Fed’s easing path and will depart actual yields elevated longer than fairness markets worth.
China’s management over crucial minerals introduces supply-shock threat that skews stagflationary: weaker progress, larger inflation, tighter situations.
That mixture traditionally crushes threat property, together with Bitcoin.
The 2026 midterms add political volatility. Collectively, these dangers describe a world the place 2.4% progress on paper coexists with higher-for-longer actual yields, a setup by which Bitcoin competes with Treasuries slightly than front-running them.
The conditional reply
If BofA’s world materializes cleanly, with 2.4% progress, OBBBA-boosted spending, AI capex, inflation easing towards however staying barely above goal, and a Fed that retains slicing into 2026, the chances favor Bitcoin benefiting slightly than fading.
That mixture often means softer actual yields and looser monetary situations. Bitcoin has tended to rally in these environments, particularly now that ETF rails enable conventional portfolios to shortly categorical that macro view.
Falling actual yields pull capital out of fastened earnings and into long-duration, high-beta property. ETF flows amplify the transfer. BTC front-runs the easing slightly than lagging it.
If JPMorgan’s world dominates, with tariffs holding inflation sticky, Supreme Courtroom uncertainty disrupts income assumptions, US-China tensions shock provide chains, midterm politics spook threat sentiment, then 2.4% progress on paper can nonetheless coexist with higher-for-longer actual yields.
The chance value of holding BTC towards 4% to five% nominal yields and optimistic actual TIPS stays excessive, and ETF flows would stay uneven or adverse. Bitcoin would fade amid macro power, as that power comes with inflation and yield pressures that make competing property extra enticing.
The two.4% US progress determine by itself is neither bullish nor bearish for Bitcoin.
The actual story is whether or not that progress comes with falling actual yields and increasing liquidity, by which case BTC is a main beneficiary, or with tariff-driven, deficit-fueled inflation and sticky actual yields, by which case Bitcoin finally ends up competing with Treasuries for capital as a substitute of capturing flows from them.
BofA gave the tailwinds, JPMorgan gave the methods these tailwinds might stall. For Bitcoin, the distinction between these two worlds isn’t measured in GDP factors. It’s measured in foundation factors on the TIPS curve and billions of {dollars} of ETF movement reversals. That’s the hinge.
