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Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX who now runs the family-office-style fund Maelstrom, believes the macro cocktail that ignited Bitcoin’s six-fold advance from late 2022 into early 2025 is being combined once more. Talking on the “Ahead Steering” podcast simply minutes after a market-soothing Trump press convention, Hayes mentioned the current atmosphere “seems like November 2022.”
Can Bitcoin Improve Sixfold Once more?
In Hayes’s telling, the fulcrum of the following impulse will not be the Federal Reserve however the US Treasury. “Folks forgot in regards to the different aspect of the equation,” he argued. “Yellen printed two-and-a-half trillion {dollars} simply by switching issuance to payments, and now Scott Bessent is speaking about Treasury buybacks—one other type of stealth quantitative easing that wants no enter from the Fed.” Hayes cited his personal arithmetic from the earlier episode: between September 2022 and early 2025, Bitcoin rose roughly 6x whereas the Fed’s steadiness sheet was ostensibly shrinking, a transfer he attributes virtually totally to Treasury-engineered liquidity.
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That dynamic, he contends, has returned. The Trump administration’s preliminary “maximalist” tariff schedule, introduced in mid-April and geared toward slashing the US current-account deficit, triggered a short however violent sell-off in bonds and equities earlier than Trump started “concession after concession.” The speedy coverage retreat, Hayes mentioned, confirms that “the American monetary system is so extremely levered it couldn’t take one week” of commerce hardball. To him, that single week uncovered the political impossibility of fiscal retrenchment and made extra cash creation inevitable. “They will name it no matter they need—simply don’t name it QE—but it surely has the identical impact: liquidity rises and Bitcoin advantages.”
Hayes’s decoupling thesis rests on arithmetic as a lot as narrative. If tariffs do trim the current-account hole, the mirror-image financial-account surplus should additionally fall, lowering overseas demand for US mega cap shares.
“Mathematically, if Trump is severe, foreigners must promote shares. Interval,” he mentioned. In that world, Bitcoin’s flows are pushed not by fairness beta however by a world scramble for impartial shops of worth amid escalating foreign money and commerce friction. He expects “US-tech exceptionalism” to fade simply as Bitcoin’s structural bid strengthens.
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The previous BitMEX chief additionally sees a latent tail-risk in Japan. A stronger yen, inspired by Washington to assist weaken the greenback, might drive Japanese buyers to unwind monumental USD carry trades, dumping Treasuries and pushing yields towards ranges that might “nook the Fed into covert curve management.”
Any volatility spike of that sort, Hayes famous, traditionally elicits a rapid-fire response from the Federal Reserve—even when it arrives cloaked as a brand new alphabet facility moderately than outright bond-buying. “Each time bond-market volatility spikes, the Fed does one thing,” he remarked. “It may not be QE within the conventional type, but it surely results in the identical final result.”
All through the hour-long dialog Hayes returned to November 2022 because the template. Again then, markets have been reeling from the aftermath of FTX and bond yields have been surging, but Bitcoin started a relentless grind upward because the Treasury tapped the reverse-repo basin for contemporary money. At the moment, he sees an echo: “This seems like November 2022,” he instructed host Felix Jauvin. “Shit’s going up.”
Whereas Hayes stopped in need of naming a worth goal, the implication was clear. In 2022–25 the stealth-liquidity wave took Bitcoin from roughly $16,000 to above $100,000. With Besson’s buyback equipment “able to go” and political urge for food for austerity already exhausted, Hayes says the stage is ready for a sequel.
At press time, BTC traded at $92,559.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
