The Bitcoin drawdown under $75,000 has market individuals debating a well-recognized query: how lengthy does a bear market final when the info refuses to enhance. CryptoQuant head of analysis Julio Moreno, talking on The Milk Street Present on Feb. 2, argued that the majority main demand and liquidity indicators are nonetheless signaling weak spot and that the bottoming course of may take months, not weeks.
Bitcoin Bear Market Can’t Be Denied Anymore
Moreno’s core framework is CryptoQuant’s “Bull Rating Index,” a composite of 10 metrics spanning on-chain valuation, liquidity circumstances, market knowledge, and a single technical development enter. “The index goes from zero to 100. Zero is essentially the most bearish, 100 is essentially the most bullish,” he mentioned. “First the index is at zero, which is extraordinarily bearish territory […] and it has been between like zero and 10 for the final perhaps month and a half […] What it’s telling us is there’s an excessive amount of weak spot in both the info [or] within the markets.”
He pointed to how shortly the identical index flipped in October, when a liquidation occasion accelerated the shift from bullish to bearish readings. In early October the index hit 80, “effectively inside bullish territory” earlier than collapsing towards 20–30 in “a number of days,” a transfer Moreno interpreted as a momentum failure that turned a late-cycle rally right into a short-lived spike.
Moreno’s greater level was about lead time. He mentioned the index “tends to change into […] bearish earlier than there’s an enormous correction in costs,” framing it as an early-warning system reasonably than a lagging affirmation device. On the present, he summarized the present regime bluntly: Bitcoin is “effectively in bear market,” and “the info is simply not supportive of any significant reversal.”
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On demand, Moreno highlighted US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which he mentioned shifted into internet promoting in This fall and remained a drag into early 2026. He cited year-to-date flows exhibiting ETFs had offered greater than 10,000 BTC in January, in contrast with buying 46,000 BTC in the identical interval a yr earlier. “If ETFs are internet sellers then it’s not supportive for costs,” he mentioned, including that any sustained restoration would probably require that demand to stabilize and develop once more.
The identical dynamic confirmed up within the Coinbase premium, the value unfold between Coinbase and offshore exchanges reminiscent of Binance. Moreno described the premium as a proxy for US demand and mentioned it flipped damaging in November and has stayed damaging “more often than not” since. Traditionally, he argued, bull markets have been “pushed by […] increased US demand,” and the persistence of a reduction suggests the US bid hasn’t returned, even after the drawdown.
Moreno additionally pointed to stablecoin liquidity as a lacking tailwind. He tracked the 60-day change in USDT market cap, a proxy for recent capital coming into the buying and selling ecosystem, and mentioned progress has successfully stalled since mid-October. New issuance tends to land on exchanges, he defined, “and supplies […] dry powder for then merchants shopping for crypto,” tying stablecoin enlargement on to market-wide liquidity circumstances.
Past ETFs and stablecoins, Moreno mentioned CryptoQuant’s longer-term Bitcoin demand progress mannequin is hovering close to zero on a year-over-year foundation. “What drives bull markets is that this […] progress in demand, the demand waves,” he mentioned, however since October that progress has slowed sharply. In his view, it helps clarify why draw back has persevered even because the market searches for a sturdy base.
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Leverage positioning has additionally deteriorated. Moreno used perpetual futures funding charges as a learn on the urge for food to carry lengthy publicity and mentioned the one-year common funding fee development is pointing decrease: “much less urge for food to go lengthy” whereas short-term funding flips have to be interpreted in another way relying on whether or not the market is in a bull or bear regime.
How Deep Into the Bitcoin Bear Market Are We Now? w/ @cryptoquant_com Head of Analysis @jjcmoreno
Bitcoin is buying and selling CHEAPER on Coinbase than Binance.
That nearly by no means occurs in bull markets.
This one sign tells you who’s NOT shopping for the dip.
Tune in to know extra
— Milk Street (@MilkRoad) February 2, 2026
When Will The Bitcoin Bear Market Finish?
For the technical element, Moreno emphasised Bitcoin’s one-year transferring common, which he treats as a regime filter. “A great way to see the development within the value is simply trying on the one-year transferring common,” he mentioned, arguing it acts as assist in bull markets and resistance as soon as value breaks under. He famous Bitcoin crossed beneath it in early November and has did not reclaim it, a sample he mentioned resembles early 2022.
On key ranges, Moreno described the “dealer on-chain realized value” — the estimated price foundation of energetic market individuals — as overhead resistance round $89,000 and $79,000. His subsequent value goal is $70,000 as an intermediate marker and $56,000 as a deeper stage tied to the identical cost-basis framework.
Moreno closed with a warning about psychology as a lot as charting. “Initially it’s important to settle for this. We’re in a bear market. So plan accordingly,” he mentioned. “There might be value rallies […] however don’t confuse that with the beginning of a bull market […] and […] don’t catch the falling knife […] the market’s backside in months.”
As for period, Moreno mentioned he may see the primary credible bottoming window rising round Q3 2026, based mostly on historic patterns and the truth that this downturn seems to have began sooner than some prior cycles. Whether or not that timeline holds, he advised, will rely much less on a single bounce and extra on whether or not demand, US flows, and liquidity indicators cease flatlining and begin turning again up.
At press time, BTC traded at $75,041.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
