Analysts have calculated that passive funds may pull as a lot as $11.6 billion from firms that deal with massive crypto holdings as company treasuries if MSCI removes them from its indexes, a transfer that will drive index-tracking automobiles to promote shares.
Experiences say that quantity comes from including direct MSCI-tracked outflows to potential follow-on promoting by different index suppliers.
Estimated Outflows Vary
The determine sits inside a wider band of estimates. Some analysts and press items put the potential harm anyplace between $10 billion and $15 billion, relying on whether or not different main index suppliers copy MSCI’s choice and the way a lot passive cash is compelled to maneuver.
The evaluation that produced these numbers checked out roughly 39 listed firms that meet MSCI’s proposed definition of a digital-asset treasury agency.
MSCI’s Proposal And The Mechanics
Based on MSCI’s personal session paperwork, the index supplier is reviewing a rule that will deal with firms holding greater than 50% of their belongings in digital belongings as non-constituents of its broad fairness indexes.
MSCI prolonged the session by means of December and mentioned it expects to announce conclusions by January 15, 2026, with any adjustments utilized within the February 2026 index evaluate. If a agency is eliminated, funds that observe MSCI benchmarks usually should cut back or promote their stakes mechanically.
We spell out the potential implications of MSCI’s proposed 50% DAT exclusion rule: https://t.co/ceJZU0dRTP pic.twitter.com/5CixFrEYVR
— George Mekhail (@gmekhail) December 17, 2025
Technique Stands Out
JPMorgan’s work has been singled out in a number of stories. Based on that word, Technique alone may face about $2.8 billion in passive outflows if faraway from MSCI indexes, and bigger losses if different index households observe.
Analysts say Technique’s distinctive place — with a really excessive share of its steadiness sheet in Bitcoin — makes it the only largest driver of the whole outflow math.
Threat To Crypto Holdings
Some sectors warn that, past inventory promoting, the businesses themselves may liquidate crypto positions to satisfy margin or liquidity wants, which may push crypto asset gross sales towards a determine as excessive as $15 billion within the worst eventualities. That might add direct promoting stress to each the equities and crypto markets.
Supply: Bitcoin for Firms
Business Pushback
Primarily based on stories, a bunch named Bitcoin For Firms, together with a number of affected corporations, pushed again, saying the MSCI take a look at depends on a single balance-sheet threshold that doesn’t replicate how these firms really function.
The marketing campaign has drawn public feedback and petitions; a number of stories put the signature depend at about 1,200 to 1,300. Corporations have filed suggestions with MSCI and have argued for an operations-based classification as an alternative of a holdings-based cut-off.
Featured picture from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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