CoinFund President Christopher Perkins is betting 2026 can be outlined much less by shiny new token narratives and extra by stability sheets, regulation-enabled product launches, and the messy maturation of crypto into an business that buys, sells, and consolidates itself. In a Dec. 31 thread on X, Perkins laid out seven predictions:
#1 Crypto ‘M&A Summer season’ And A $25 Billion Deal Yr
Perkins’ first and loudest name: 2026 can be “the yr of crypto M&A.” He pegged 2025 M&A exercise at roughly $8.6 billion in whole deal worth, then projected 2026 will “attain $25bn,” framing it as a step-change somewhat than a modest grind increased.
He sketched consolidation stress throughout a number of fronts, from “DAT/Labs/Basis consolidation” to “DAT vs DAT (mNAV reckoning),” plus a two-way bridge between conventional finance and crypto. The route of journey, in his telling, is easy: TradFi corporations making an attempt to catch up and crypto corporations shopping for their means into regulated capabilities.
“TradFi → Crypto (ugh, I’m behind and must catch up),” he wrote. “Crypto (DATs, Exchanges) → TradFi (we want working corporations, securities capabilities and licenses, too!).” He additionally flagged “Asia→US” as a theme, arguing {that a} clearer regulatory atmosphere will pull worldwide gamers towards the US market.
“2021 was stablecoin summer season; 2026 goes to be M&A summer season,” Perkins concluded.
#2 Stablecoins To $600 Billion
Perkins’ second prediction is a market-cap doubling in stablecoins, “surpassing $600bn (2x).” His reasoning hinges much less on retail use and extra on issuer economics and market plumbing.
“For each stablecoin, somebody is making internet curiosity revenue. Who wouldn’t need one?” he wrote. “As markets tokenize, you’ll want stablecoins to purchase and promote them. Watch the expansion speed up in 2026.”
The subtext is that stablecoins turn out to be the default settlement asset for on-chain monetary exercise—particularly if extra real-world property and market constructions migrate on-chain—whereas issuer incentives stay robust.
#3 A $2 Billion-Plus Crypto Hack As A Coverage Catalyst
Perkins additionally forecast a significant safety occasion: “A serious hack >$2bn will shake confidence, result in a drawdown and catalyze to coverage modifications.” He pointed to what he described as worsening traits, citing $3.4 billion in hacking throughout 2025, “a 51% improve,” then argued the assault floor grows as tokenization and stablecoins carry “tons of of billions extra” on-chain.
He went additional than the standard name for higher safety practices, floating a provocative historic reference as a potential coverage route. “Perhaps it’s time for a brand new change to coverage, like Letters of Marque and Reprisal,” he wrote. “Simply sayin’….” The implication: if losses scale up, the coverage response might turn out to be extra aggressive—and fewer summary.
#4 Regulated Derivatives Return
On market construction, Perkins predicted US crypto derivatives will come “again to the US in a significant means,” with a “massive battle for marketshare” as “new gamers enter the area.” Whilst he expects the US share of world derivatives quantity to triple, he argued CME’s slice of US crypto futures might fall amid broader competitors.
His thesis is rooted in regulatory momentum and institutional buying and selling habits. “Now that the regulatory path is obvious, there can be a proliferation of latest regulated futures merchandise launched within the US,” Perkins wrote. “As crypto enters its institutional period, demand can be off the charts as a result of foundation buying and selling can be their first step. This may breathe life again into alts.”
#5 No Market-Construction Invoice
Not every thing is acceleration. Perkins’ fifth prediction: a complete market construction invoice “is not going to be handed,” blaming political calendar gravity. “Sorry guys, this one goes to be too troublesome. Midterms will take the oxygen out of the room,” he wrote.
#6 New ATHs For Bitcoin And ETH
Regardless of that, he nonetheless expects new highs within the majors, calling for bitcoin at $150,000 and ether above $5,000. “BTC and $ETH will hit ATHs,” Perkins wrote. “BTC hits $150,000; ETH makes passes $5,000. Institutional adoption makes this potential.”
#7 NFTs Return, However Not As Jpegs
Lastly, Perkins forecast an NFT revival with a format change. “NFTs will make a comeback, however model 2.0 is not going to be jpegs,” he wrote, carving out an exception for CryptoPunks whereas dismissing a broader JPEG-led resurgence. As an alternative, he expects “monetary, non-fungible tokens,” doubtlessly tied to “individualized, tokenized safety/yield vaults.”
At press time, the whole crypto market cap stood at $2.94 trillion.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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