Bull or bear? Next $106k retest could decide Bitcoin’s fate

Bitcoin has handled $106,400 as a pivot throughout the present cycle, performing as each resistance and assist.

Value has repeatedly clustered close to the extent, cleared it on retests, and expanded towards the following channel bands, whereas breaks beneath the extent usually required a restore section earlier than any advance.

My charts beneath present worth channels which were most influential to Bitcoin for the reason that begin of 2024, with $106,400 highlighted by the stable yellow line.

In mid-December 2024, the value first broke $106,000 after a gradual climb from sub-$100,000 areas. As soon as the extent cleared, the value pressed to $107,800 earlier than failing a retest of $106,400 and falling again into the mid-$90,000s.

Late January 2025 introduced an analogous sample with extra back-and-fill. Bitcoin met $106,400 from beneath, then stalled. Comply with-through carried the intraday worth into the $108,300 vary earlier than once more failing the retest.

Even with noise contained in the channel grid, the inflection at $106,400 organized the motion, with the market repeatedly checking the extent earlier than shifting again down. The consistency of this habits throughout weeks is what makes the road helpful for threat administration.

By late Might 2025, the connection flipped. The worth examined $106,400 twice from beneath after which twice extra from above earlier than utilizing this degree as assist a number of extra instances.

Bounces carried to $111,900 and $110,300, then momentum pale on the sixth retest, and a grind decrease started.

Throughout this era, $106,400 behaved like a ground. So long as closes held above it, sellers didn’t press the following decrease bands in dimension. As soon as that ground lastly gave manner by the tip of the month, restoration took longer, reinforcing the concept shedding the pivot adjustments the tempo.

June 2025 illustrated the assist and resistance operate once more.

After dipping beneath the extent in mid-month and subsequently being rejected 4 extra instances (with one intraday breakout above), Bitcoin ultimately reclaimed $106,400 on the finish of the month, held a number of intraday highs, and superior to $108,300 and $109,400.

The response after every retest was orderly, which is typical when a broadly watched pivot is revered. Merchants who waited for affirmation on the line had express invalidation if the value fell again by means of $106,400, and clear targets within the higher bands if it held.

This noticed Bitcoin crack into worth discovery territory and ultimately attain its cycle excessive of $126,000. We didn’t see $106,400 examined once more till the Trump commerce tariff $19 billion wipeout on October 10.

The sequence from October to early November 2025 exhibits the opposite facet.

A decisive drop from increased ranges depraved all the way down to $106,400 earlier than surging again towards $115,000. Bitcoin has tried to carry the pivot a number of instances, and as of press time, it’s about to mark its eighth take a look at.

To this point, every time $106,400 has been examined since we hit $126,000, the value instantly bounced again towards $110,000 – $115,000.

Ominously, Bitcoin has by no means held $106,400 after eight retests earlier than.

These repeated interactions matter as a result of they compress a fancy set of variables right into a single reference.

$106,400 aligns with the center of the present channel pack on the displayed framework, which suggests it sits close to a fair-value axis the place each patrons and sellers discover liquidity.

When the value is accepted above this degree, the trail of least resistance shifts to the following higher cluster. When the value rejects or loses its degree, the market usually has to rebuild participation beneath earlier than patrons regain management once more.

The sample throughout the screenshots may be summarized as follows.

For merchants who map selections to ranges, the playbook is simple.

When worth clears $106,400 and confirms on a retest, consideration naturally shifts to the following overhead clusters round $107,800, $108,300, $109,400, and $110,500, which line up with the dashed yellow rungs on the displayed ladder.

Failure again by means of the pivot returns focus to the draw back stack round $105,500, $104,500, and $103,800, the place the market has repeatedly discovered liquidity throughout breakdowns.

This framework doesn’t predict route; it defines areas the place execution high quality tends to enhance and the place invalidation is unambiguous.

This degree additionally helps reconcile conflicting indicators from momentum or funding.

During times when momentum turns however worth nonetheless sits above $106,400, the trail to increased bands usually stays open so long as the pivot holds.

During times when spinoff positioning seems crowded, but the market can’t reclaim its degree, the burden of proof stays with patrons till acceptance returns. The end result is a sensible strategy to managing publicity with out overfitting to short-term indicators.

None of those assigns particular standing to a single quantity past its repeated use within the present construction. Markets evolve, and pivots migrate as distributions shift.

Nonetheless, the charted channels have depicted intraday assist and resistance ranges for nearly 2 years at this level.

The worth of $106,400 lies within the tape that retains returning to it, the reactions that type round it, and the readability it presents for planning the following commerce.

Thus, $106,400 seems to be functioning because the cycle’s steadiness level, and worth continues to deal with it accordingly..