James Ding
Jan 27, 2026 16:26
Coinbase and Glassnode Q1 2026 report reveals BTC choices now exceed perpetual futures OI, with leverage dropping to three% of market cap after October’s liquidation occasion.
Bitcoin’s derivatives market has undergone a structural transformation, with choices open curiosity now surpassing perpetual futures for the primary time following October’s mass liquidation occasion, in line with the most recent Coinbase and Glassnode institutional analysis report launched January 27.
The shift marks a basic change in how merchants are expressing threat. Systematic leverage throughout crypto markets has dropped to roughly 3% of complete market capitalization (excluding stablecoins), down sharply from the leverage-heavy circumstances that outlined 2024 and early 2025. Quite than fleeing totally, capital rotated into protecting choices buildings.
Bitcoin Dominance Holds Whereas Alts Falter
BTC dominance remained anchored close to 59% by This autumn, at the same time as mid- and small-cap tokens didn’t maintain their earlier features. The report notes that offer dynamics level towards distribution—BTC provide energetic inside three months jumped to 37% in This autumn, whereas long-dormant cash noticed modest motion.
Sentiment-wise, the Internet Unrealized Revenue/Loss indicator shifted from “Perception” to “Nervousness” throughout October and hasn’t recovered. Historic patterns recommend these nervousness phases usually coincide with consolidation slightly than capitulation. Bitcoin at present trades at $87,762, although current knowledge from Coinbase reveals the platform’s premium has turned damaging—an indication of subdued home demand.
Ethereum’s Cycle Indicators Dropping Predictive Energy
Maybe probably the most placing discovering: conventional cycle frameworks have gotten much less helpful for ETH. The report argues that structural modifications—price compression on Layer 2s, evolving community economics—have diluted the explanatory energy of cycle-based evaluation.
“Market outcomes at the moment are extra more likely to be pushed by broader liquidity circumstances and relative positioning than by cycle length alone,” the analysts wrote. Translation: do not guess on ETH just because it “ought to” pump primarily based on historic timing.
Institutional Positioning Stays Defensive
Survey knowledge from institutional respondents reveals continued choice for large-cap publicity amid geopolitical uncertainty. The report describes sentiment as “selectively constructive”—establishments aren’t bearish, however they are not chasing both.
This defensive posture aligns with the choices market knowledge. When refined gamers shift from leverage to defined-risk methods, it usually indicators expectations of uneven circumstances slightly than directional conviction.
What This Means for Q1
The cleaner market construction post-deleveraging creates circumstances for extra sustainable strikes when catalysts emerge. Decrease leverage means smaller liquidation cascades. Choices-heavy positioning means merchants have already paid for his or her draw back safety.
Key dates to look at: any macro occasions that might shift the present “Nervousness” sentiment regime. The report suggests volatility compression or steady macro circumstances may present the catalyst for sentiment enchancment—although particular catalysts stay unsure heading into February.
Picture supply: Shutterstock
