Alvin Lang
Jan 14, 2026 19:49
Bitcoin faces essential resistance at $96K the place Q2 2025 patrons gathered. Glassnode information reveals LTH profit-taking dropped from 100K to 12.8K BTC weekly.
Bitcoin’s early 2026 rally has carried worth straight right into a wall of overhead provide, with the $95.6K to $96K area now appearing because the battleground between profit-taking long-term holders and recent demand. Based on Glassnode’s newest on-chain evaluation revealed January 14, the market faces a well-known check that is decided the result of each main restoration try since November 2025.
At press time, BTC trades at $97,797, up 2.06% in 24 hours—although this push greater got here on skinny futures quantity moderately than natural spot accumulation.
The $93K-$110K Provide Cluster
The Lengthy-Time period Holder Value Foundation Distribution Heatmap reveals a dense focus of cash gathered between April and July 2025, spanning roughly $93K to $110K. Each rebound since November has stalled on the decrease fringe of this zone as holders who purchased close to cycle highs look to exit positions.
This is what issues: the speed of promoting has dropped dramatically. Lengthy-term holders are at the moment realizing roughly 12,800 BTC per week in internet revenue—a far cry from the 100,000+ BTC weekly distribution seen at cycle peaks. They’re nonetheless internet sellers, however the depth has cooled significantly.
For context, Bitcoin hit its all-time excessive of $126,272 again in October 2025. Present costs symbolize a roughly 23% drawdown from that peak, placing many Q2 2025 patrons underwater or barely at breakeven.
The $98.3K Line within the Sand
Brief-term holder price foundation sits at $98.3K—primarily the combination entry worth for latest patrons. This degree has traditionally separated corrective phases from sturdy uptrends. Sustained buying and selling above it could sign that new demand is efficiently absorbing overhead provide.
Repeated failure to carry above $98.3K dangers triggering defensive promoting from newer individuals who cannot abdomen losses. The True Market Imply at roughly $81K represents the deeper assist degree; shedding that may open the door to a capitulation section harking back to April 2022 by means of April 2023.
Skinny Liquidity, Massive Strikes
The latest push towards $96K wasn’t pushed by a wave of recent shopping for. Glassnode’s evaluation factors to a derivatives-led quick squeeze on comparatively skinny futures quantity. Modest positioning shifts generated outsized worth responses—a double-edged sword that works each methods.
Spot market habits has turned extra constructive. Binance and combination change flows have shifted into buy-dominant regimes, whereas Coinbase—essentially the most persistent supply of sell-side strain throughout consolidation—has meaningfully slowed its promoting exercise. However this is not the aggressive accumulation usually seen throughout full pattern expansions.
Institutional flows inform an identical story. Spot ETFs have moved again into optimistic territory, appearing as marginal patrons once more. Company and sovereign treasury flows have flattened moderately than accelerated. Steadiness-sheet demand is stabilizing worth, not driving it greater.
Choices Market Sees Threat Forward
The derivatives complicated reveals an fascinating stress. Implied volatility stays low throughout the curve, suggesting merchants anticipate near-term stability. However 25-delta skew stays biased towards places, notably in longer maturities—that means individuals are paying for draw back safety at the same time as they maintain lengthy publicity.
Sellers are at the moment quick gamma round spot within the $94K to $104K vary. Translation: hedging flows will amplify strikes moderately than dampen them. If worth breaks decisively in both route, anticipate acceleration moderately than imply reversion.
The 100K name strike reveals a transparent cut up in positioning. Close to-dated maturities present internet name shopping for, whereas longer-dated contracts present internet promoting. Merchants are betting on a possible 100K retest however monetizing upside at longer horizons—tactical optimism paired with structural skepticism.
What Comes Subsequent
The setup heading into Q1 is constructive however fragile. Promote strain has eased, volatility danger is being deferred moderately than discharged, and skinny liquidity means comparatively modest inflows might generate outsized strikes. Company treasuries are shopping for BTC at thrice the mining provide price, in accordance with latest studies, offering a possible demand catalyst.
However the market wants spot accumulation and sustained ETF inflows to rebuild—not simply quick squeezes on gentle quantity. Till that occurs, route stays hostage to derivatives positioning and liquidity situations. The $98.3K short-term holder price foundation is the extent to observe. Clear it convincingly, and the trail towards retesting October’s highs opens up. Fail repeatedly, and that $81K True Market Imply begins trying related.
Picture supply: Shutterstock
