Bitcoin’s red month; why September still shapes the crypto cycle

Bitcoin’s crimson month is sort of right here, and as we strategy one more September, is it inevitable that costs will dwindle? Let’s check out a number of the causes the ninth month of the 12 months is traditionally dangerous for Bitcoin.

Why September is traditionally Bitcoin’s crimson month

Since 2013, September has confirmed to be a difficult month for Bitcoin, with losses in eight of the final 11 years. That may very well be as a result of retail traders sometimes take earnings after summer season rallies and even crypto to cowl their fall bills, like tuition charges and tax planning.

Bitcoin’s crimson month may additionally be one thing of a self-fulfilling prophecy as merchants count on crimson candles and act extra defensively, pulling the market down additional. Perspective right here is essential, as most September pullbacks have been modest.

The month sometimes marks an area backside, after which Bitcoin usually rebounds strongly into ‘Uptober’ as This fall traditionally brings restoration and, in even huge rallies. In October 2020, for instance, Bitcoin surged from round $10,800 firstly of the month to over $13,800 by the tip, marking a acquire of greater than 27%.

August recap: all-time highs and whale sightings

August 2025 was dramatic by any measure. Bitcoin surged to an all-time excessive of $124,533 on August 14, solely to tumble 11% to lows hovering round $110,000 simply two weeks later.

Practically $200 billion in market worth evaporated, with a single occasion triggering the drop: a beforehand dormant whale that bought ~24,000 BTC, pushing the spot worth under $109,000 and sparking the biggest liquidation cascade of the 12 months.

Virtually $900 million in by-product positions have been worn out, 90% being bullish longs, with $150 million in BTC and $320M in ETH liquidated. Ethereum confirmed relative power, remaining above its 100-day transferring common even with an 8% decline.

The current weak point wasn’t nearly technicals or sentiment. Spot and derivatives market order books remained skinny, so any main promote (just like the whale dump) was sufficient to amplify worth volatility.

In the meantime, on-chain knowledge in late August confirmed tepid exercise and decreased inflows, additional weakening bid assist.

Macroeconomic uncertainty additionally continues to be a headwind. With the U.S. Federal Reserve’s September coverage strikes in focus, merchants are pricing in each danger of erratic strikes and potential for renewed optimism if macro indicators, like a charge minimize, flip favorable.

Getting ready for September: situations and indicators

Crypto dealer Cas Abbé outlined three potential situations for Bitcoin as September approaches. In his major “Vary & Restore” situation (40% likelihood), Bitcoin is predicted to commerce sideways between $110K and $120K for a lot of the month, as extra leverage is decreased and institutional traders step by step step in to build up. Such a consolidation would create a more healthy base for a possible This fall rally.

Within the “Second Flush” case (35% likelihood), if Bitcoin drops under $110K, an additional wave of liquidations may ensue, driving the value into the excessive $100Ks and erasing leftover leveraged positions. Traditionally, these sorts of corrections usually precede a robust backside.

Conversely, the “Fast Reclaim” situation (25% likelihood) envisions establishments shopping for aggressively, enabling BTC to quickly reclaim the $117K–$118K vary and triggering an earlier return of bullish sentiment.

All through September, Abbé suggests merchants carefully monitor a number of on-chain and macro indicators; notably, choices market exercise main as much as the September 27 expiry may supply helpful insights into positioning and sentiment.

Whether or not Bitcoin’s crimson month will flip inexperienced this 12 months stays to be seen, however with skinny liquidity, heightened volatility, and institutional patrons ready within the wings, September might supply each dangers and alternatives this 12 months.