Bitcoin bounced again towards $69,000 on Feb. 25 after an intraday flush that printed lows within the low-$60,000s throughout a number of venues, liquidating practically $500 million briefly positions.
The transfer retains worth contained in the $60,000-$69,000 vary that has outlined February buying and selling, in keeping with Glassnode.
But, it does not resolve the structural weak spot that has characterised the market since its 47% drawdown from all-time highs.
The bounce seems to be much less like a macro breakout and extra like a risk-on rebound mixed with a circulate and positioning reset after capitulation. Three mechanics clarify the transfer.
Three drivers behind the rally
Cross-market threat urge for food returned. International equities rallied on Feb. 25, led by know-how shares forward of Nvidia’s earnings. Bitcoin traded in step with different high-beta belongings as threat urge for food improved.
Spot BTC ETF flows flipped optimistic. US spot Bitcoin ETFs printed internet inflows of $257.7 million on Feb. 24, in keeping with Farside Traders knowledge. This marked a reversal from the prior day’s $203.8 million outflow.
Nevertheless, the motion does not erase the broader outflow development. Glassnode flags ETF flows as adverse year-to-date, but it surely additionally factors to a believable marginal purchaser able to powering a pointy bounce after a flush transfer.
Positioning and choices hedging are normalized. Glassnode flags that perpetual futures funding charges normalized towards impartial, indicating leverage has reset.
Choices markets spiked in short-dated volatility as Bitcoin approached $62,000, then compressed once more as worth reclaimed the mid-$60,000s.
This conduct suggests panic hedging unwound, a mechanical rebound gas reasonably than new bull market demand.
What structural weak spot nonetheless seems to be like
Glassnode’s evaluation is direct: Bitcoin is “stabilizing, not but recovering.”
The market stays trapped between valuation anchors, with the primary demand zone round $60,000-$69,000. Right this moment’s bounce does not change that image.
The 47% drawdown from all-time highs is at traditionally mid-to-late bear-market depth. Roughly 9.2 million BTC held at a loss creates promoting strain on rallies as holders rotate out of underwater positions.
Glassnode’s Accumulation Development Rating stays beneath 0.5, indicating restricted conviction from massive holders.
The 90-day Realized Revenue/Loss Ratio beneath 1.0 signifies a loss regime and impaired liquidity circumstances. Spot Cumulative Quantity Delta stays sharply adverse, exhibiting energetic distribution and sell-side circulate dominance.
ETF flows stay in a broader outflow part regardless of Feb. 24’s optimistic day.
The $60,000 ground and the $70,000 ceiling
Clear ranges on either side outline Bitcoin’s present vary. The $69,000 space sits on the prime of Glassnode’s $60,000-$69,000 most important demand zone.
Holding this degree on a day by day and weekly foundation would assist body right this moment’s transfer as “reclaiming vary highs” reasonably than a failed bounce.
The $65,000 degree serves as a mid-range, and Glassnode notes the market snapped again as short-dated concern pale. The $62,000-$62,500 vary is important. Glassnode explicitly flags roughly $62,000 as a degree that “may have opened a transfer towards the excessive 50s if damaged.”
The Feb. 25 intraday flush examined this space and held, explaining the mechanical reduction rally that adopted.
The $60,000 degree marks the underside of the February vary. Breaking it might shift expectations towards deeper contraction. Beneath that, roughly $55,000 represents the Realized Worth, Glassnode’s structural ground anchor.
Glassnode states explicitly that failure to reclaim ranges above $70,000 retains draw back contraction threat elevated.
The $72,000 degree marks the highest finish of Glassnode’s $60,000-$72,000 hall. Breaking by this vary ceiling can be the primary indication that the latest weak spot is resolving.
The roughly $79,200 degree represents the True Market Imply in Glassnode’s valuation construction.
Reclaiming this may represent a real regime sign. Above that, heavy overhead provide clusters sit at $82,000-$97,000 and $100,000-$117,000, the place underwater holders can promote into reduction rallies.
What would depend as a real regime shift
Three concrete tells would point out the market has moved from stabilization to restoration.
The primary is sustained ETF inflows. Not only a single $257.7 million day however consecutive durations of internet optimistic flows that reverse the year-to-date outflow development.
The second is spot markets flipping from sell-dominant to bid absorption, with Glassnode’s spot Cumulative Quantity Delta stabilizing and trending optimistic.
The third is reclaiming larger valuation anchors, shifting above $70,000, then $72,000, then finally the roughly $79,200 True Market Imply.
The underside line
Bitcoin’s bounce again towards $69,000 displays a risk-on rebound mixed with a circulate and positioning reset after a capitulation flush.
International equities rallied, US spot Bitcoin ETFs printed a $257.7 million internet influx on Feb. 24, and Glassnode’s on-chain knowledge reveals leverage has reset whereas choices panic hedging pale.
Nevertheless, the structural image hasn’t flipped. Glassnode nonetheless describes the market as stabilizing, not recovering.
Weak accumulation, adverse spot circulate bias, and fragile ETF demand persist. Bulls want to carry $65,000-$69,000 and reclaim ranges above $70,000, then $72,000, earlier than calling the latest weak spot “fastened.”
The “do not lose it” ground stays $62,000, with $60,000 and roughly $55,000 Realized Worth beneath that. Right this moment’s transfer is mechanical reduction, not structural restoration.
