Bitcoin (BTC) holding patterns recommend a possible resumption of the uptrend beginning in late September 2025, as long-term accumulation information reveals evolving market dynamics pushed by institutional adoption and coverage catalysts.
CryptoQuant Korean Group Supervisor Crypto Dan’s evaluation reveals that the present cycle differs from earlier bull markets resulting from prolonged timeframes and flattening momentum slopes.
The proportion of Bitcoin held for over one yr primarily based on realized market cap demonstrates the present cycle’s distinctive traits in comparison with earlier phases.
In contrast to previous cycles, the place sharp surges led to speedy peaks, institutional adoption by spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and nation-state purchases has prolonged the bull market’s period whereas step by step flattening the uptrend’s slope.
Market momentum faces periodic stalls when capital flows shift towards altcoins, a sample that has repeated a number of occasions in the course of the present cycle. It contrasts with 2023-2024, when Bitcoin dominated market consideration earlier than capital started migrating to different cryptocurrencies.
Favorable backdrop
Crypto Dan famous that September charge minimize expectations align with Bitcoin’s seasonal patterns and technical indicators.
Polymarket merchants at present place 81% odds on a 25 foundation level Federal Reserve charge minimize on the September FOMC assembly, offering a possible catalyst for threat asset appreciation.
The evaluation additionally anticipates further momentum from the anticipated approvals of altcoin ETFs in October.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart acknowledged in April that the majority crypto ETF purposes face ultimate deadlines in October, making it the probably approval month for spot altcoin merchandise.
This timeline creates a positive coverage window for crypto markets as they enter the autumn season.
Mixed with seasonal patterns that present Bitcoin’s power in autumn months, the convergence of dovish financial coverage and regulatory readability positions the marketplace for renewed upward momentum following the present consolidation part.
Prolonged cycle traits
Institutional adoption essentially altered Bitcoin’s cycle dynamics in comparison with the retail-driven phases that preceded it.
The introduction of spot ETFs and company treasury adoption created extra secure demand flows however prolonged the cycle’s period. The evaluation instructed these structural adjustments assist sustained bull market situations regardless of periodic consolidation phases.
Given the favorable coverage backdrop and improvement of institutional infrastructure, any further corrections in the course of the transition interval may current engaging alternatives for accumulation.
The mix of charge cuts, ETF approvals, and seasonal elements helps an optimistic market outlook for fall and winter 2025.
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