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Ostium Labs’ Market Outlook #55 argues that Bitcoin’s higher-timeframe bull construction survived final week’s volatility and now factors “again to the highs,” supplied spot holds above $107,000. “While we commerce above $107k, I believe the following transfer is again to the highs, with $112k prone to act as native assist,” the be aware states, including that the agency nonetheless expects value to commerce into “that confluence of overhead resistance at $133k by month-end.”
The workforce frames final week’s deleveraging because the “nice reset,” contending that the most important liquidation occasion in crypto historical past eliminated extra leverage with out breaking weekly construction. On the weekly chart, no main assist was misplaced and the wick all the way down to roughly $107,000 was reclaimed right into a $115,000 shut, which Ostium reads as affirmation that momentum stays bullish on larger timeframes. Invalidation is exact: “A weekly shut under final week’s low is now the apparent invalidation… shut by $107k… and we have now a extra urgent concern, the place we undoubtedly then commerce into $99k.”
On the every day, Ostium notes a traditional sweep-and-reversal sequence. Worth twice tagged the prior vary excessive close to $126.3k, failed to carry above $123.8k, after which “collapsed,” in the end wicking into the 200-day transferring common—an space the desk had flagged as a probable terminal stage for any early-October capitulation.
The view from right here is unambiguous: “Anybody anticipating sub-$100k will stay sidelined for a very long time—in case you didn’t get it on the most important liquidation occasion in crypto historical past, I don’t assume you’re getting it till we enter a bear market.” Tactical invalidation on this timeframe is a every day shut under the 200-DMA, which might put the 360-DMA close to $100,000 in play and represent Ostium’s “line within the sand for a full-blown flip into bear market territory.”
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Path dependency issues for the upside name. Ostium expects prior highs round $112,000 to behave as assist and type a better low, with “acceptance again above ~$116k” setting a rotation to the high quality at $123.8k after which “value discovery past that.” The desk’s near-term timing is surprisingly punchy: “Gun to my head I believe we commerce $125k by early subsequent week and $133k by month-end.”
For merchants, the popular lengthy setup is early-week weak spot into $110k–$112k to determine a better low, utilizing a every day shut under $107k (laborious cease $105k) as danger, and focusing on at the very least $121k with scope for a lot larger. A counter-trend brief, in contrast, would require a grind up into the $121k confluence, a rejection and every day shut again under $118k, after which a fade into the $110k–$112k zone—provided that the higher-low hasn’t already fashioned.
Positioning proof, in Ostium’s view, buttresses the reset-then-extend thesis. The agency highlights obliterated open curiosity, Binance Internet Longs again to “Liberation Day” lows, compressed three-month annualized foundation, and contemporary liquidation maps for one-week and one-month horizons—all according to a cleaner tape for development continuation.
The calendar this week is dense however navigable: a speech-heavy week (Powell, Bailey, Lagarde), the NY Empire State Manufacturing print, the Philadelphia Fed survey, and US Industrial Manufacturing. Ostium’s framework treats these occasions as potential catalysts quite than development definers; as long as $107,000 holds and $112,000 capabilities as a springboard, the structural bias stays larger towards $133,000.
On the core of the thesis is a binary investor psychology after the purge. “These types of occasions mark turning factors: both you at the moment are cemented in your perception that… the bear market has begun… or you might be cemented in your perception that the leverage washout provides us the runway for larger for longer costs into Q1 subsequent yr,” Ostium writes. The desk is firmly within the latter camp, reiterating that Bitcoin “seems to be extra bullish at this time than it did originally of final week.”
Briefly past Bitcoin, Ostium’s cross-asset learn tilts supportive for the crypto beta complicated if near-term circumstances align. For Ethereum, weekly construction “seems to be nothing like a high,” with a decisive shut above trendline resistance and $4,400 anticipated to set off an all-time-high breakout; the workforce believes “ETH trades by $4,950 inside 10 days… towards $5,750 in November,” and sees the This fall low as doubtless in.
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On ETH/BTC, the desk calls final week’s flush into 0.0319 a higher-low and anticipates ETH outperformance into year-end, contingent on reclaiming 0.0375 and ultimately breaking the trendline—a dynamic that, if realized, may cap BTC dominance with out undermining Bitcoin’s personal development. The DXY rally is considered as late-stage: resistance close to 100 and a looming rollover would scale back macro headwinds for danger belongings.
For US equities, Ostium nonetheless expects “larger for longer,” eyeing contemporary SPX highs by month-end and a robust November as buyback blackouts finish and earnings season progresses; enhancing fairness breadth tends to coincide with constructive crypto flows.
Lastly, in “OTHERS,” the altcoin index printed a historic wick to the 360-week MA earlier than reclaiming assist; with derivatives positioning “completely decimated,” Ostium now expects a better native low, a November reclaim of the yearly open close to $335bn, and, if confirmed, a push towards cycle and ATH resistance—circumstances that normally monitor with a more healthy, much less fragile Bitcoin uptrend.
Taken collectively, the desk’s message is constant throughout timeframes and belongings: the reset did its job, the invalidation is obvious at $107,000, $112,000 must be the pivot, and the upside waypoint is $133,000, with the macro calendar extra prone to modulate the trail than to derail the vacation spot. As Ostium summarizes, “While we commerce above $107k… the following transfer is again to the highs.”
At press time, BTC traded at $111,509.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
