As of Dec. 8, Bitcoin ETFs maintain 1,495,160 BTC and public firms maintain 1,076,061 BTC. Mixed, that’s roughly 2.57 million BTC, considerably greater than the two.09 million BTC sitting on centralized exchanges.
Probably the most price-sensitive stock in Bitcoin’s 19.8 million circulating provide has migrated out of alternate wallets and into buildings that reply to totally different incentives, function underneath totally different regulatory constraints, and mobilize capital on totally different timelines.
The shift is not only an possession reshuffle. It’s a structural change in how provide strikes, how foundation trades work, and the way volatility behaves when the marginal vendor is not a retail dealer on Binance however a regulated fund, a company treasury division, or an institutional custodian managing multi-billion-dollar shopper mandates.
The previous psychological mannequin of Bitcoin liquidity assumed exchanges have been the dominant reservoirs of promote stress.
Merchants deposited cash, market makers quoted spreads, and drawdowns occurred when stock on order books bought hit. That framework nonetheless applies, however it now describes a shrinking share of the ecosystem.
Alternate balances have contracted steadily since early 2024, whereas ETF holdings and institutional custody have expanded.
Greater than 61% of the Bitcoin provide has remained unmoved for over a 12 months, in accordance with latest analysis by Glassnode and Keyrock, pointing to a market the place efficient float is narrowing whilst complete provide grows.
The query will not be whether or not this issues for worth formation, however how you can map the brand new plumbing and what dangers emerge when the fastest-growing Bitcoin warehouses are balance-sheet buildings tied to fairness markets, debt maturity calendars, and month-to-month NAV reconciliations.
The three-pool system
Bitcoin’s liquid provide now divides into three swimming pools with totally different mobilization logic. Alternate float is probably the most reactive.
Cash sitting in scorching wallets on Coinbase, Binance, or Kraken can hit bids in minutes, and merchants who deposited for leverage or speculative positioning signify the highest-velocity promote stress.
That pool has been shrinking for years, dropping from multi-million-BTC ranges in 2021 to simply over 2 million BTC at the moment, primarily based on Coinglass knowledge.
ETF float is slower however rising. US spot Bitcoin ETFs held about 1.31 million BTC as of early December 2025, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounting for roughly 777,000 BTC, per Bitcoin Treasuries.
ETF shares commerce on secondary markets, so worth discovery happens by means of share creation and redemption relatively than direct spot promoting. Licensed individuals run arbitrage between ETF share costs and internet asset worth, however that course of entails T+1 or T+2 settlement, custodian coordination, and regulatory reporting.
The result’s that ETF-held Bitcoin doesn’t hit spot order books except APs redeem in-kind and transfer cash to exchanges. This friction dampens reflexive promoting throughout intraday volatility however can even amplify strikes when redemption waves construct.
Company and treasury float is the swing issue. Public firms now maintain greater than 1 million BTC, with Technique’s tranches making up the majority.
In keeping with Bitcoin Treasuries, listed firms collectively maintain round 5.1% of BTC provide, and drawdowns can push some treasuries underwater, elevating the chances of compelled or opportunistic promoting in stress regimes.
Company holders face totally different pressures than ETF shareholders. They report mark-to-market losses in earnings, service debt with fastened schedules, and reply to fairness analysts who mannequin Bitcoin publicity as balance-sheet danger.
When Bitcoin drops 30%, a leveraged company treasury doesn’t simply lose paper worth. It confronts margin calls, refinancing constraints, and board scrutiny.
That makes company float much less sticky than long-term holder provide however extra delicate to capital-market situations than pure alternate stock.
Foundation and the carry machine
The ETF launch cycle additionally reshaped Bitcoin derivatives markets.
CME Group’s explainer on spot-ETF-plus-futures mechanics lays out the idea commerce: purchase spot ETF shares, quick CME Bitcoin futures, seize the unfold between spot and futures costs.
After spot ETF launches, leveraged funds elevated internet quick positioning in CME Bitcoin futures, according to hedged carry relatively than outright bearishness, per the identical CME evaluation.
Open curiosity expanded by means of 2024 and into 2025 as institutional desks constructed positions, and foundation habits turned a sign of arbitrage positioning relatively than pure directional sentiment.
This issues for decoding ETF flows. Amberdata’s latest commentary argues that massive headline outflows since mid-October have been concentrated and according to foundation arbitrage unwinds relatively than a uniform institutional exit.
When foundation compresses, or funding charges flip detrimental, carry trades lose their edge, and desks unwind by redeeming ETF shares and protecting futures shorts. The consequence can seem like institutional promoting within the move knowledge, however the underlying driver is mechanical relatively than a shift in long-term conviction.
ETF plumbing now hyperlinks spot demand to derivatives positioning in ways in which complicate clear narratives about “sensible cash” flowing in or out.
Volatility compression and deeper liquidity
Bitcoin’s long-term realized volatility has almost halved over the cycle, dropping from the mid-80% vary to the low-40% vary, in accordance with a Glassnode and Fasanara associate observe.
The identical evaluation factors to multi-billion-dollar day by day ETF buying and selling volumes and a market construction that’s materially totally different from earlier cycles.
Regulated wrappers pull in allocators who wouldn’t contact spot Bitcoin on offshore exchanges, and people allocators deliver execution self-discipline, danger limits, and compliance infrastructure that clean out among the wild worth swings that outlined earlier cycles.
Spot liquidity has deepened as market makers quote tighter spreads round ETF NAV, and the presence of institutional patrons who rebalance on schedules relatively than panic promote on headlines creates a extra secure bid throughout drawdowns.
However volatility compression will not be the identical as stability.
The focus of Bitcoin in a small variety of massive holders, whether or not ETFs, company treasuries, or whale wallets, signifies that a single massive liquidation or redemption wave can transfer markets greater than diffuse retail promoting ever might.
The Swiss Nationwide Financial institution chair rejected Bitcoin as a reserve asset in April 2025, citing volatility and liquidity standards, a reminder that, whilst market construction matures, the asset’s habits underneath stress nonetheless fails the requirements required for central financial institution reserve administration.
What occurs when treasuries face stress
The company treasury mannequin for Bitcoin accumulation assumes rising costs and entry to low-cost fairness or debt financing.
Technique’s playbook of issuing convertible debt, shopping for Bitcoin, letting BTC appreciation cowl the dilution and curiosity expense works in a bull market with low borrowing prices.
It breaks when Bitcoin drops under an organization’s common value foundation, and credit score markets tighten.
The identical logic applies to smaller company holders and to any entity that leveraged as much as purchase Bitcoin, assuming the worth would maintain climbing.
ETFs don’t face the identical refinancing danger, however they do face redemption danger.
If a sustained bear market drives persistent outflows, approved individuals redeem shares and ship Bitcoin again to the market, both by means of spot gross sales or custodian transfers that ultimately attain exchanges.
The buffer that the ETF construction gives, delaying the transmission of promoting stress by days or perhaps weeks, doesn’t remove the stress. As a substitute, it simply modifications the timing and the execution path.
The result’s that whereas ETFs scale back day-to-day volatility by holding cash off exchanges, they don’t forestall massive drawdowns.
They redistribute promoting stress throughout time and throughout market individuals, however the cash nonetheless exist, and the incentives to promote nonetheless reply to cost.
The ledger rebalances, not disappears
The info help a reclassification of Bitcoin’s liquid provide map, not a declare that offer constraints assure worth appreciation.
Glassnode’s “anchored float” vocabulary describes the portion of provide that trades actively versus the portion that sits dormant in long-term holder wallets, company steadiness sheets, or ETF custody.
Because the alternate float shrinks and the ETF and company float develop, the marginal price-setting trades happen throughout venues with totally different microstructures, latencies, and participant profiles.
Foundation trades hyperlink spot and derivatives markets extra tightly. Company treasuries tie Bitcoin volatility to fairness market stress and credit score situations.
Regulated funds appeal to capital that might not in any other case contact the asset but additionally introduce redemption mechanics that may amplify strikes when sentiment turns.
The shift from exchange-dominated provide to custodian-and-treasury-dominated provide modifications the promoting stress from steady and reflexive to episodic and capital-markets-dependent.
It compresses realized volatility in bizarre situations however doesn’t take away tail danger. It creates new arbitrage alternatives and new sources of demand, but additionally new vulnerabilities tied to leverage, regulation, and institutional danger administration.
The Bitcoin ledger now displays a market the place the biggest holders usually are not nameless whales or early adopters however publicly traded firms, registered funding merchandise, and custodians managing billions on behalf of establishments.
That may be a totally different beast, and it trades in a different way.
