Bitcoin Bets On Polymarket Signal Sharp 2026 Downside Risk

Prediction markets have turned extra bearish on Bitcoin, after a weekend sell-off briefly pushed costs under $75,000 on Monday.

On Polymarket, the chances of Bitcoin (BTC) falling under $65,000 in 2026 climbed to 72% on Monday, with virtually $1 million in quantity.

Different massive wagers included bets on BTC dropping under $55,000 and reclaiming $100,000 by year-end, with implied possibilities of 61% and 54%, respectively.

The surge in draw back bets indicators a sentiment reversal. The market has erased good points made throughout President Donald Trump’s November 2024 election win.

The decline additionally marked a notable second for Michael Saylor’s Technique, the world’s largest publicly listed Bitcoin holder, as costs fell under its common buy price for the primary time since late 2023.

Bear market, US liquidity squeeze cited as merchants seek for causes behind sell-off

Some analysts have attributed the most recent crypto sell-off to a broader bearish Bitcoin development. CryptoQuant reiterated {that a} bear market has been in place since November 2025, when Bitcoin fell under its 365-day transferring common.

“Don’t attempt to discover bottoms after a brand new leg down,” CryptoQuant head of analysis, Julio Moreno, stated in an X publish on Saturday, including: “Bear market bottoms take months to kind.”

Quantum Economics CEO Mati Greenspan stated Bitcoin was not designed to rise in worth, calling {that a} secondary impact relatively than its core function.

“Its predominant use case is to supply a type of cash that’s unbiased of governments and banks,” Greenspan wrote on X on Monday.

Individually, World Macro Investor founder Raoul Pal linked the downturn to tight US liquidity circumstances relatively than crypto-specific elements.

A possible drop of Bitcoin under $65,000 this yr might run counter to forecasts from main funding companies and banks.

Late final yr, Grayscale Investments predicted Bitcoin might surpass all-time highs of $126,000 by June 2026, citing institutional demand and clearer US regulation.

Associated: Bitcoin’s worth could have seen ‘deepest pullback’ at $77K: Analyst

Normal Chartered and Bernstein projected Bitcoin would attain $150,000 in 2026, although each had revised earlier, increased targets amid slower inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The information got here amid Polymarket dealing with a Nevada court docket order blocking its occasion contracts as unlicensed wagering. Different states, together with Tennessee, have additionally not too long ago focused the platform with enforcement actions.