Bitcoin (BTC) could get better from its ongoing stoop and attain $150,000 by the 12 months’s finish, based on a latest Bernstein outlook.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin should maintain the 200-week SMA and see new-investor flows flip optimistic.
Sidelined capital should movement again into crypto, and the quantum menace must be addressed.
Extra charge cuts from the Fed in 2026 will deliver risk-on buyers again to BTC.
Bitcoin should maintain above this key development line
One situation that has persistently outlined Bitcoin’s transition from bear markets to new bull cycles is the worth motion across the 200-week easy shifting common (200-week SMA, the blue wave).
Traditionally, this wave has acted as a magnet throughout deep drawdowns and a stable flooring as soon as promoting strain subsides.
In each 2015 and 2018, Bitcoin bottomed close to the 200-week SMA earlier than getting into multiyear uptrends. The 2022 bear market noticed BTC worth briefly breaking beneath it, however the failure proved short-lived.
Bitcoin holding above the 200-week SMA will cut back the chances of a protracted, 2022-style capitulation, whereas preserving the trail open for a brand new bull section.
Bitcoin’s new investor flows should return
One other prerequisite for a sustained bull run is a reversal in new investor flows.
As of February, wallets monitoring first-time and short-term holders present roughly $2.7 billion in cumulative outflows, the best since 2022.
In wholesome bull markets, pullbacks entice recent capital and speed up participation. Nonetheless, within the present market, the other is going on, based on IT Tech, a CryptoQuant-associated onchain analyst.
“Present readings resemble post-ATH transitions, during which marginal patrons exit and worth is pushed by inner rotation, not internet inflows,” the analyst wrote in a Tuesday put up.
Associated: Bitcoin holders promote 245K BTC in tight macro situations: Did the market backside?
In prior cycles, together with 2020, 2021 and 2022, sustained bullish reversals solely emerged as soon as new-investor flows flipped decisively again into optimistic territory.
The identical should occur in 2026 to make a powerful bull case for Bitcoin. Bitcoin ETF internet flows turned optimistic on Monday, which might be a primary signal that these investor flows are beginning to come again.
Sidelined Tether should movement again into crypto
Tether’s (USDT) share of the entire crypto market has risen in latest weeks to check a well-recognized 8.5%–9.0% resistance zone.
Rising USDT dominance means buyers are parking cash in stablecoins and avoiding threat. Falling dominance often indicators the other: capital rotating again into Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Since November 2022, clear pullbacks from this 8%–9% space have aligned with sturdy Bitcoin rebounds.
One rejection was adopted by a 76% rally over 140 days, whereas one other preceded 169% positive factors over 180 days. An analogous setup occurred from 2020 to 2022, when the important thing ceiling sat close to 4.5%–5.75%.
USDT dominance broke above that vary in Could 2022, and Bitcoin then fell by 45%, additional reflecting the inverse correlation between the 2.
In consequence, Tether dominance should fall to start out a brand new Bitcoin bull run.
Quantum fears should subside
One other headwind to beat for Bitcoin is the potential quantum menace. These are theories that future quantum computer systems might break Bitcoin’s cryptography, placing BTC wallets in danger.
Some observe that 25% of Bitcoin addresses are already in danger.
A number of security-focused sources body this as a menace that’s nonetheless far off sooner or later.
For instance, in November 2025, cryptographer and Blockstream CEO Adam Again stated Bitcoin faces no significant quantum menace for “20 to 40 years,” including the community might be “quantum prepared” effectively earlier than it turns into an actual downside.
Bitcoin Optech additionally famous that near-term quantum threat can be concentrated in edge instances, reminiscent of reused addresses, quite than all the community without delay.
For Bitcoin to construct a bull case in 2026, this menace have to be addressed for patrons to regain confidence.
Doing simply that, Coinbase and Technique have launched initiatives, bringing in specialists and mapping out a roadmap for Bitcoin safety upgrades.
Extra charge cuts by the Fed
Bitcoin’s probabilities of re-entering a bull cycle in 2026 enhance if the US Federal Reserve delivers a minimum of two charge cuts subsequent 12 months, which is what CME futures pricing was presently implying as of February.
Decrease charges usually cut back the attraction of yield-bearing property like U.S. Treasurys, pushing buyers to hunt larger returns elsewhere. That shift tends to favor threat property, together with equities and cryptocurrencies.
Donald Trump could push the brand new Fed chair for 3 charge cuts in 2026, based on Lee Ferridge, strategist at State Avenue Corp.
Three charge cuts this 12 months could additional improve Bitcoin’s attraction amongst threat merchants.
This text doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call. Whereas we attempt to offer correct and well timed info, Cointelegraph doesn’t assure the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any info on this article. This text could comprise forward-looking statements which can be topic to dangers and uncertainties. Cointelegraph is not going to be accountable for any loss or harm arising out of your reliance on this info.
