Barclays expects a extra tepid yr for crypto in 2026, with buying and selling volumes trending down and investor enthusiasm waning. In a wide-ranging year-end report revealed Friday, the financial institution flagged a tough backdrop for digital asset exchanges like Coinbase (COIN), citing unclear catalysts for renewed exercise and a sluggish begin to token adoption efforts.
Retail-facing exchanges, which benefited from surging buying and selling curiosity throughout the crypto bull runs of prior years, at the moment are going through a extra subdued setting. Barclays analysts famous that buying and selling quantity in spot markets — key income drivers for corporations like Coinbase and Robinhood (HOOD) — has cooled sharply. With out a clear spark to reignite demand, volumes might stay muted.
“Spot crypto buying and selling volumes […] seem like trending in direction of a down-year in FY26, and it’s not clear to us what may reverse this development,” the analysts wrote.
Crypto markets have a tendency to maneuver on massive occasions: coverage bulletins, product launches or political modifications. Barclays pointed to previous bursts of exercise, just like the March 2024 spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) inflows or the pro-crypto presidential win in November as key drivers of short-term spikes. However within the absence of such occasions, the financial institution sees structural development as missing.
One space that would stir the market is regulation. Barclays highlighted the pending CLARITY Act, laws that will assist outline the road between digital commodities and securities and make clear which U.S. company — the U.S. Securities and Trade Fee (SEC) or the smaller Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee (CFTC) — regulates which property. Whereas not a assured market mover, the invoice may ease operational uncertainty for crypto corporations and buyers alike. If handed, it may open the door for clearer product launches, particularly in tokenized property.
Coinbase stays a focus in Barclays’ evaluation. Whereas the corporate is increasing into derivatives and tokenized fairness buying and selling, the financial institution sees headwinds from shrinking spot volumes and rising working prices.
“COIN has a quantity [of] development initiatives in addition to current acquisitions that would begin to develop into extra impactful,” the report acknowledged. Nonetheless, analysts revised their worth goal for the inventory right down to $291, citing a extra conservative earnings outlook.
Tokenization continues to realize consideration from each crypto-native and conventional finance corporations. BlackRock (BLK), Robinhood (HOOD), and others have been piloting merchandise on this house. However Barclays cautions the development is early-stage and unlikely to materially influence earnings in 2026.
In the meantime, the U.S. political setting has turned extra favorable for digital property following current elections. Nonetheless, Barclays sees a lot of this optimism already priced into the market. Any legislative motion, just like the CLARITY Act, would want to move by the Senate and survive doable authorized challenges earlier than having any sensible influence.
In sum, 2026 could also be a transitional yr for crypto. With declining retail exercise and no speedy tailwinds, corporations are specializing in long-term bets like tokenized finance and compliance upgrades. Whether or not these investments bear fruit subsequent yr or additional out stays unsure.
