BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes referred to as the Federal Reserve’s Reserve Administration Purchases (RMP) program “QE in disguise,” predicting renewed liquidity will drive Bitcoin larger.
Abstract
- Arthur Hayes says the Fed’s RMP program features like quantitative easing.
- He expects Bitcoin to commerce between $80K–$100K earlier than breaking above $124K.
- Hayes predicts renewed liquidity might push Bitcoin towards $200K in 2026.
The Maelstrom Fund CIO expects Bitcoin (BTC) to commerce between $80,000 and $100,000 near-term earlier than reclaiming $124,000 and probably focusing on $200,000.
Hayes printed his evaluation in a December 19 essay titled “Love Language,” arguing that RMP features identically to quantitative easing by way of oblique mechanisms.
He introduced a portfolio shift from Ethereum into high-quality DeFi property that he believes can outperform as fiat liquidity improves.
RMP operates by way of cash market fund channel
The Fed launched RMP on the December 10 FOMC assembly. Hayes’ accounting evaluation exhibits this system purchases short-term Treasury payments from cash market funds, which then redeploy proceeds into longer-dated Treasuries or repo markets.
This construction not directly funds authorities spending with out the political prices of formally asserting quantitative easing.
“Whereas RMP purchases are technically smaller in absolute magnitude than previous QE packages ($40 billion month-to-month), the structural mechanism creates equal financial enlargement,” Hayes wrote.
This system turns into extra highly effective by way of authorities reliance on T-bill financing to fund deficits exceeding $2 trillion yearly.
Hayes emphasised that New York Fed President John Williams has discretionary management over RMP enlargement by way of imprecise “ample reserves” steering.
This construction allows limitless steadiness sheet enlargement with minimal oversight, which Hayes colorfully termed “Cash Printer Go F***** Brrrrr.”
Multi-phase Bitcoin value trajectory by way of 2026
Hayes forecasts uneven buying and selling between $80,000 and $100,000 from December 2025 by way of January 2026.
Two elements drive this vary: persistent perception that RMP differs from quantitative easing and uncertainty about whether or not this system continues past its April 2026 scheduled finish.
As soon as markets acknowledge RMP’s true quantitative easing nature, Hayes expects fast acceleration.
Bitcoin would shortly retake $124,000 and transfer towards $200,000 in early-to-mid 2026. This leg could be pushed by institutional FOMO, ETF inflows, and recognition that the Fed is underwriting authorities spending.
March 2026 represents “peak expectations” for RMP’s asset value inflation functionality. Hayes anticipates Bitcoin will decline and kind an area backside “nicely above $124,000.”
The pullback could be short-term and strategic somewhat than a cycle high. Hayes expanded his long-term forecast to $500,000 by year-end 2026 in late November feedback.
