A public feud between two high-profile crypto buyers has become a proposed six-month value wager.
Abstract
- Hayes supplied a six-month guess on HYPE’s efficiency towards large-cap altcoins.
- The problem adopted sharp criticism from Multicoin’s Kyle Samani.
- The wager highlights rising debate over Hyperliquid’s construction and worth.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has challenged Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani to a $100,000 guess over the long run efficiency of Hyperliquid’s HYPE token.
The proposal was posted on X on Feb. 8, 2026, after Hayes reposted and responded to Samani’s sharp criticism of the undertaking.
Underneath the phrases outlined by Hayes, the guess would run from 00:00 UTC on Feb. 10 by means of 00:00 UTC on July 31, 2026. Throughout that interval, Hyperliquid (HYPE) would wish to outperform any altcoin with a market capitalization above $1 billion on CoinGecko.
Samani can be allowed to pick the comparability token. The loser would donate $100,000 to a charity chosen by the winner. The change comes as Hyperliquid and its token stay in focus amongst derivatives merchants, whilst the broader market trades beneath strain.
Dispute over Hyperliquid’s construction and management
The guess follows weeks of criticism from Samani, who has repeatedly questioned Hyperliquid’s design and governance.
In latest posts, Samani mentioned the platform’s code will not be absolutely open-source, depends on a permissioned distribution mannequin, and is led by a founder who left his residence nation to launch the enterprise. He additionally accused the undertaking of enabling felony exercise and described it as essentially flawed.
Hayes rejected these claims and framed the talk in market phrases. He argued that if HYPE is really a weak asset, it ought to fail to outperform different large-cap tokens over time. If it succeeds, he mentioned, critics ought to rethink their views.
The dispute gained traction after analyst Jon Charbonneau praised Hyperliquid’s buying and selling execution, evaluating it favorably with conventional venues akin to CME. That commentary helped re-ignite debate over whether or not newer on-chain derivatives platforms can compete with established exchanges.
As of press time, Samani had not publicly confirmed whether or not he would settle for the wager.
Hayes’ purchases and Multicoin-linked accumulation
The wager has drawn consideration partly due to Hayes’ latest shopping for exercise. In accordance with on-chain information, Hayes spent roughly $1.91 million in early February 2026 to accumulate 57,881 HYPE tokens. His whole holdings elevated to about 131,807 tokens, which on the time was price about $4.3 million.
These acquisitions, which got here after the gross sales of PENDLE, ENA, and LDO, point out a deliberate shift towards Hyperliquid. In September 2025, Hayes had bought about 96,600 HYPE tokens for roughly $5.1 million, locking in earnings amid issues about token unlocks and competitors. His latest accumulation marks a renewed vote of confidence within the undertaking.
Moreover, pockets information signifies that in late January 2026, addresses linked with Multicoin started accumulating HYPE. Experiences point out that greater than 87,100 ETH was swapped for round 1.35 million HYPE tokens, price over $40 million on the time, by means of intermediaries akin to Galaxy Digital.
This accumulation occurred whereas Samani continued to take a vital public stand, which difficult the continuing dialogue. Nonetheless, in early February, Samani transitioned into an advisory place at Multicoin, resigning from each day administration. Some observers consider this transition might have influenced the fund’s latest positioning.
For now, Hayes’ proposed guess stands as a uncommon public check of conviction in a market the place opinions and capital flows usually transfer in numerous instructions. Whether or not Samani accepts the guess or not, the episode has positioned renewed concentrate on Hyperliquid’s function within the evolving crypto derivatives panorama.
