Jefferies strategist Chris Wooden has eliminated Bitcoin from his long-term mannequin portfolio, citing quantum computing as a danger that weakens Bitcoin’s store-of-value framing for pension-style allocations. VanEck head of analysis Matthew Sigel flagged the change on X, calling it a notable “downgrade” from one of many Road’s most generally adopted world strategists.
Veteran Strategist Chris Wooden Exits Bitcoin
Wooden wrote that he’s not positioning for an imminent worth shock, however that the long-duration mandate is the place the quantum query bites. “Whereas GREED & worry doesn’t consider that the quantum problem is about to hit the Bitcoin worth dramatically within the close to time period, the shop of worth idea is clearly on much less strong basis from the standpoint of a long-term pension portfolio,” Wooden wrote. “For that motive, GREED & worry will take away the ten% allocation to Bitcoin this week with 5% reallocated to gold and 5% reallocated to gold-mining shares.”
The transfer is framed as danger administration quite than a retrospective efficiency critique. Wooden famous that regardless of gold’s latest outperformance versus Bitcoin, Bitcoin remained nicely forward since his mannequin first added it: Bitcoin had risen 325% since December 17, 2020, whereas gold bullion was up 145% over the identical interval.
In a word dated January 15, 2026, Wooden described how the quantum dialogue has moved from summary principle into one thing asset allocators are being requested to underwrite. “GREED & worry isn’t any pure mathematician,” he wrote, including that he has discovered himself pulled into conversations about “elliptic curves” due to “the rising focus in latest months on the risk posed to the Bitcoin system by the arrival of quantum computing.”
His core declare is that the perceived timeline is compressing. He referenced rising concern that cryptographically related quantum computer systems may arrive “just a few years away quite than a decade or extra,” and argued that any credible risk to Bitcoin’s safety mannequin is “probably existential” as a result of it undermines the store-of-value idea that underpins the “digital different to gold” narrative.
Wooden’s mechanism is simple: what’s computationally infeasible as we speak may grow to be tractable below CRQCs. He wrote that the present asymmetry, straightforward to derive a public key from a non-public key, successfully unimaginable to reverse, may collapse, with the time to derive a non-public key from a public key shrinking to “mere hours or days.”
Wooden stated the trade is already debating potential responses, together with whether or not to “burn” quantum-vulnerable cash to guard system integrity or to do nothing and settle for the likelihood that weak cash may very well be stolen by entities with CRQCs. He offered the dispute as a battle between preserving Bitcoin’s property-rights ethos and avoiding a coverage selection that appears confiscatory, including that one laptop scientist he spoke with described the do-nothing stance as a “suicidal delusion.”
Wooden stated his considering was knowledgeable by discussions with educated events and pointed to a Chaincode report as background studying, with out treating it as a near-term buying and selling set off.
VanEck’s Sigel Responds
Sigel’s takeaway was much less about whether or not quantum danger exists and extra about how completely different techniques reply. When one consumer argued that quantum would wipe out financial institution accounts, e-mail, and brokerage techniques as nicely, Sigel dismissed that as “not a enough take anymore,” drawing a pointy distinction between improve paths and reversibility.
“Banks improve top-down; BTC requires years of consensus,” Sigel wrote. “Banks have an ‘undo’ button; BTC is finality-first.”
Sigel additionally linked the controversy to a well-recognized fault line inside Bitcoin governance. Requested how consultant Wooden’s view is perhaps, Sigel stated that within the “Adam Again vs. Nic Carter” debate he’s “on Nic’s facet,” and described Wooden’s choice as supporting proof. On the identical time, Sigel emphasised course of: he met Wooden in New York earlier than the word was printed and stated that though he disagreed with the conclusion, Wooden “got here to it truthfully.”
On positioning, Sigel stated he has “added quantum publicity” beforehand to VanEck’s Onchain Financial system ETF (NODE) and made small hedges, with a desire for “diversified” AI miners over “DATs / leveraged BTC,” whereas conserving spot BTC by way of an ETF as the biggest holding. He framed the quantum problem as “solvable” and akin to a “wall of fear like blocksize wars,” quite than a thesis-breaker.
At press time, BTC traded at $90,941.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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