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Prediction markets encroach on gambling

January 7, 2026Updated:January 7, 2026No Comments2 Mins Read
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Prediction markets encroach on gambling
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A rising authorized conflict is unfolding between Native American tribes and Silicon Valley-backed prediction markets, as tribal leaders warn that new types of on-line wagering threaten the financial spine of Indigenous communities throughout the U.S.

Abstract

  • On the heart of the dispute are Kalshi Inc. and its accomplice Robinhood Markets Inc.
  • The prediction-based buying and selling merchandise permit customers to gamble with crypto on real-world occasions.
  • Tribes argue that they quantity to unlawful playing performed exterior established federal, state, and tribal gaming frameworks.

In accordance with Bloomberg, a coalition of Native American organizations and tribes has filed a authorized temporary backing the Ho-Chunk Nation of Wisconsin in its lawsuit in opposition to Kalshi and Robinhood.

These corporations undermine a hard-won system that has allowed tribes to fund important authorities providers, social applications, and financial improvement by gaming income, the Native nations argue.

The choice marks an escalation of a broader struggle over the way forward for prediction markets. The temporary, supported by teams together with the Indian Gaming Affiliation and the Nationwide Congress of American Indians, maintains that gaming shouldn’t be merely a industrial exercise for tribes however an existential one tied on to tribal sovereignty and self-determination.

Tribes have traditionally dominated gaming exterior Las Vegas because of authorized carve-outs permitting playing on Indigenous land, making a crucial income stream. They contend that Kalshi and Robinhood’s choices bypass these protections and violate longstanding regulation. Kalshi maintains that its regulation by the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee overrides state and tribal authority, whereas Robinhood says its merchandise function inside a compliant framework.

Regardless of mounting authorized resistance from tribes and states corresponding to Nevada, prediction markets proceed to realize traction. Rivals like Polymarket are putting media partnerships, and main exchanges, together with Intercontinental Trade and CME Group, are transferring into the house—signaling that the regulatory battle is simply starting.

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