Bitcoin’s latest value motion has began to put on on individuals. After a powerful begin to the yr and a run that pushed above $100,000 and briefly touched $125,000, the market has drifted into one thing nearer to a low-volatility grind. On the 1000x podcast, ProCap’s Jeff Park argued that this shift in “market construction” isn’t a minor element. In his view, it’s the central purpose Bitcoin has struggled to reassert momentum, whilst gold and different commodities have pushed to contemporary highs.
Bitcoin Wants Volatility
Park’s thesis is simple: Bitcoin’s upside story traditionally leans on volatility. If volatility compresses and stays compressed, Bitcoin loses one of many options that has constantly attracted marginal danger capital, particularly the sort of capital that exhibits up early, pushes value, after which pulls within the subsequent cohort behind it.
“There’s two issues we have to hit on,” Park stated. “One is the idea within the projection that I’ve for Bitcoin to succeed in meaningfully new highs that we want implied volatility and realized volatility to rise concurrently. After which the second is to your query, why is that not occurring in the present day?”
He framed Bitcoin much less as an remoted “crypto asset” and extra as one instrument in a a lot wider relative-value universe. In that universe, Bitcoin competes for allocation with equities, charges, FX, and commodities, not simply different tokens. And the attribute that made Bitcoin distinct for a lot of allocators was its capability for uneven outcomes, which volatility helps categorical.
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“Bitcoin isn’t in a microcosm of its personal, proper?” Park stated. “You’re competing with Magazine 7, you’re competing with gold, you’re competing with FX, you’re competing with JGBs, and it’s an enormous world on the market. And the function that I believe Bitcoin has all the time been thrilling for lots of parents is to capitalize upon uneven outcomes during which the volatility is without doubt one of the distinctive options that makes it worthwhile for the risk-taking endeavor.”
Bitcoin Wants ‘Actual’ Consumers
That units up the uncomfortable comparability the hosts saved circling: gold making new highs whereas Bitcoin lags. Park didn’t attempt to wave it away. He known as it a second for Bitcoin holders to be reasonable about adoption and about the place the actually structural bids are proper now.
“The fact is gold goes up as a result of there’s actual consumers, proper?” he stated. “There’s actual consumers stepping in as there was for the previous yr and a half. And people structural bids live on as a result of it has discovered a product market match inside our world financial framework as a reserve asset.”
Park argued Bitcoin isn’t there but. Sure, there are recurring headlines about sovereign curiosity, and he referenced the Czech Republic’s central financial institution for example of a rustic testing Bitcoin publicity. However he emphasised that the dominant flows in 2025 have been ETFs and corporates, not governments and never central banks.
“Make no mistake, it’s not governments and it’s not central banks,” he stated. “A lot of the flows in the present day have come from ETFs and corporates. ETFs are coming as a result of there’s non-public wealth funding advisors that need publicity to an asset class… Corporates have a really completely different intention of what they’re making an attempt to perform.”
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In Park’s telling, that distinction issues as a result of it adjustments the market’s tone. ETF consumers are sometimes looking for portfolio development advantages, decorrelation, optionality, a non-consensus sleeve, slightly than the sort of high-conviction, narrative-driven bid that traditionally made Bitcoin really feel just like the market’s most important occasion.
Retail Adoption Should Return
Park then prolonged the argument right into a broader cultural level about who truly pushes new adoption. He described Bitcoin as a generational undertaking and warned that institutionalization solely works if it stays anchored to retail participation slightly than changing it.
“On the core of it’s as a result of Bitcoin is a motion of younger individuals’s hearts,” Park stated. “If younger individuals cease taking part, I believe the truth that the institutionalization of Wall Road is occurring on the again of their investments can be going to return to a halt… If you’d like Bitcoin to proceed to carry out, you need to attraction to younger members.”
He additionally pointed to a separate drag: Bitcoin’s danger dialog has develop into noisier. Park cited renewed “quantum nervousness” and inside disputes round numerous Bitcoin Enchancment Proposals, arguing that even low-probability existential dangers must be compensated and low volatility doesn’t supply that compensation.
“Gold doesn’t have that,” he stated, contrasting Bitcoin’s ongoing protocol and existential debates with gold’s comparatively settled narrative. “You need to be compensated for it… and you might be definitely not going to be compensated for quantum danger with Bitcoin vol at 25.”
Even so, Park didn’t current the long-term case as damaged. If something, he argued Bitcoin’s benefit turns into extra apparent while you give attention to sensible possession slightly than financialized wrappers. He described bodily gold as operationally tough – opaque pricing, logistical friction, authenticity considerations — and stated Bitcoin nonetheless provides one thing nearer to a single world clearing value and less complicated portability.
“Anybody who’s ever tried to purchase bodily gold is aware of how annoying that course of is,” he stated. “The pricing is intransparent. The logistics is unclear and finally authenticity too… Bitcoin nonetheless has what I name a singularly clearing value for buying and selling.”
Why Isn’t Bitcoin Going Up? | Jeff Park https://t.co/CxtFhRKcIZ
— 1000x (@1000xPod) December 22, 2025
On the finish, Park stated the principle query going ahead is whether or not Bitcoin can regain the situations that traditionally pulled new members into the commerce and whether or not the market is keen to pay for the chance it retains insisting Bitcoin represents.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $87,779.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
