US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs hemorrhaged $2.57 billion in internet outflows by Nov. 17, the funds’ worst month-to-month drawdown since their January 2024 launch.
In the identical month, Bitcoin dropped 14.7% and briefly touched $89,253.78 on Nov. 17, its lowest degree since April, earlier than recovering to $93,426.16, up 1.3% in 24 hours.
The outflow wave crested on Nov. 13, when $866.7 million exited the funds within the second-worst single-day retreat on document, in accordance with Farside Buyers knowledge. BlackRock’s IBIT bore the brunt of the next day, posting its steepest day by day loss at $463.1 million.
IBIT alone accounts for practically $1.6 billion of the month’s complete redemptions.
Transmission mechanism
ETF flows translate straight into spot demand by the licensed participant creation and redemption course of. When capital enters an ETF, APs should purchase or supply underlying Bitcoin to ship to the fund’s custodian, producing actual spot purchases.
Creation demand past pure promote strain tightens the circulating provide and lifts the clearing value. The reverse holds: redemptions pressure funds to promote Bitcoin or unwind hedges, pressuring spot markets decrease.
This mechanism operates by channels that bypass retail crypto exchanges. Retirement accounts, registered funding advisors, and wirehouse platforms funnel institutional capital that in any other case wouldn’t contact on-chain markets.
When these allocators reverse course, they take away a structural bid that had absorbed miner issuance and different cyclical provide.
Day by day mining output sits round 450 BTC post-halving, and sustained internet shopping for above that charge creates unfavorable internet new provide, a situation that usually helps value appreciation.
Moreover, timing issues. APs execute Bitcoin purchases throughout US market hours round share creations, whereas public circulate knowledge is printed after the shut.
Some members hedge with CME futures earlier than sourcing spot, fragmenting intraday value discovery between the derivatives and money markets. Value actions can precede headline circulate figures by hours.
Broader context and value dynamics
Flows don’t function in isolation. Bitcoin can rally on outflow days if offshore leverage expands or different purchaser cohorts emerge.
Conversely, inflows don’t assure good points if macro threat, greenback power, or liquidations dominate.
Nonetheless, over multi-week durations, persistent redemptions sign eroding sturdy demand and decrease the value flooring wanted to draw sellers.
Bitcoin’s 18.6% month-to-month drawdown to $89,253.78 tracks the dimensions of ETF capital flight. The funds had functioned as a gentle supply of fiat-native demand, absorbing spot provide and decreasing float out there on the market.
November’s reversal removes that assist construction exactly as miners proceed producing 450 BTC day by day and the market digests prior inflows that had pushed Bitcoin above $111,000 earlier within the month.
The $2.57 billion exit represents the primary sustained check of whether or not ETF demand can stabilize throughout volatility or if these automobiles amplify drawdowns when allocators rotate out.
IBIT’s $1.6 billion in redemptions alone exceeds the whole month-to-month outflows recorded in any prior interval, concentrating the exodus within the largest and most liquid fund.
Though Bitcoin’s restoration above $93,000 demonstrates some shopping for curiosity at decrease ranges, the month’s cumulative injury displays the withdrawal of structural demand that had underpinned the asset’s climb by 2024 and early 2025.
