The U.S. nationwide debt surpassed $38 trillion in early November, and denoting the inventory in bitcoin reveals a bigger transfer than the underlying BTC value since January 20.
In response to the U.S. Treasury’s Debt to the Penny dataset, whole public debt stood at $38.118 trillion as of November 6, up about $1.1 trillion since August 12 and above the late October breach of $38 trillion that drew new headlines.
The $37 trillion threshold first made information in mid-August, then the subsequent trillion arrived inside weeks as issuance continued.
Over the identical interval, spot BTC has typically traded throughout the $100,000 to $105,000 band this month, with a January 20 shut of $102,082.
Due to this fact, the unit-of-account lens revealed a bigger transfer in debt than in value initially of the week. The inauguration day reference value is $102,082, putting at present’s stage inside 10% of that mark.
Sani from TimechainIndex calculated that, at a working value of $103,500 per BTC, the present U.S. public debt equates to roughly 368.3 million BTC, calculated as $38.118 trillion divided by the BTC value.
On January twentieth, when @realDonaldTrump took workplace, Bitcoin was priced at $103,500, the identical value it’s buying and selling at at present.
Throughout that point, the U.S. Nationwide Debt rose by $1.9 trillion, reaching $38.126 trillion.
In Bitcoin phrases, the debt grew by 18.566 million BTC, totaling… pic.twitter.com/du0NucMFa4
— Sani | TimechainIndex.com (@SaniExp) November 13, 2025
With the debt inventory rising by roughly $1.9 trillion since January 20, valuing the change at $103,500 per BTC yields roughly 18.36 million BTC.
As Bitcoin has fallen over 6% since Sani posted his perception, this is able to work out to 19.8 million BTC at $96,000.
With post-halving issuance close to 450 BTC per day, or about 164,250 BTC per yr, that single ten-month enhance maps to greater than a century of recent provide.
Flows into and out of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs add an incremental strain valve.
U.S. spot ETF circulation tallies have been blended via early November, which issues for the mechanical hyperlink between demand, value, and the “debt expressed in BTC” ratio.
On the fiscal aspect, Treasury continues to be elevating web new money at quarterly refundings. In November, the Treasury introduced $125 billion of issuance to refund $98.2 billion coming due, elevating $26.8 billion of recent money. In response to the U.S. Division of the Treasury’s quarterly refunding assertion and TBAC minutes, ongoing SOMA runoff and a heavy maturity schedule preserve a gradual financing want.
The straightforward math highlights how a fixed-supply asset interacts with a rising legal responsibility. Even when BTC trades at $200,000, the debt inventory would nonetheless equal about 191 million BTC utilizing the present $38.118 trillion stage.
That’s an order of magnitude above at present’s circulating provide of roughly 19 to twenty million cash. On-chain provide inches larger predictably, whereas the debt numerator can add lots of of billions inside weeks, relying on issuance and money balances.
Sensitivity to BTC value is easy to border, and the desk beneath exhibits how the “debt in BTC” quantity compresses as value rises, holding the most recent debt tally fixed and rounding to 1 decimal place for readability.
| BTCUSD | U.S. Debt (in BTC) |
|---|---|
| $80,000 | ~476.5 million BTC |
| $100,000 | ~381.2 million BTC |
| $103,500 | ~368.3 million BTC |
| $120,000 | ~317.7 million BTC |
| $150,000 | ~254.1 million BTC |
| $200,000 | ~190.6 million BTC |
A sensible rule of thumb close to present ranges is that every $10,000 transfer in BTC modifications the “debt in BTC” determine by roughly 32 to 36 million BTC, a 9–10% shift that’s nonlinear throughout the curve.
The framing isn’t a declare that america might or would repay obligations in bitcoin; reasonably, it’s a unit-of-account lens that compares a fixed-issuance asset with a fiscal path pushed by coverage and macroeconomic situations.
The lens can also be delicate up to now alignment. Treasury’s each day debt knowledge posts with a lag, so matching the identical calendar day for the debt shut and the BTCUSD shut issues for precision. Totally different value sources will differ by 1–2%, so stating the supply in every calculation helps hold the arithmetic auditable.
Ahead, the trail of the numerator and denominator will determine whether or not the chart bends decrease. On the numerator, the Treasury’s time period construction decisions and web new money wants will decide rollover depth and the curiosity price path into 2026.
In response to the refunding assertion, roughly 31% of marketable debt has been maturing inside 12 months in latest quarters, with a mean maturity of practically six years. This combine retains invoice share and coupon sizing in focus if yields maintain close to present ranges.
On the denominator, ETF circulation regimes can shift shortly, and sustained optimistic flows would help spot demand, which mechanically reduces the “debt in BTC” ratio. Week-to-week swings stay frequent as funds and advisers rebalance.
The macro overlay from funds projections leans towards bigger curiosity prices within the baseline. The Congressional Finances Workplace 2025 to 2035 outlook exhibits web curiosity rising towards about 4% of GDP by 2035, with debt held by the general public projected to succeed in round 156% of GDP by 2055 absent coverage modifications.
In response to the Committee for a Accountable Federal Finances’s abstract of the CBO baseline, near-term actual progress underneath 2% and inflation drifting towards 2% go away the nominal GDP denominator with no sturdy enhance, which reinforces the arithmetic of a gradual or larger “debt in BTC” studying except value lifts or deficits compress.
Replicating the maths is easy. Pull the most recent Complete Public Debt Excellent from the Treasury’s Debt to the Penny portal, pull a same-day BTCUSD shut from a constant index, then compute ‘Debt in BTC’ as DebtUSD divided by BTCUSD.
For issuance context, use 450 BTC per day post-halving. This technique yields the 368.3 million BTC determine at a $103,500 value on a $38.118 trillion debt base, and the roughly 18.36 million BTC equal of the year-to-date enhance when mapped on the identical value.
What to observe over the subsequent quarter is the combination at Treasury’s auctions, any change in web new money targets, the evolution of ETF flows, and the next CBO updates as FY26 tax debates resume.
A transfer in any of these inputs will present up in both the numerator or the denominator.
In response to the Treasury’s November assertion, the present refunding raised $26.8 billion in new money whereas refunding $98.2 billion coming due.
