Crypto’s year-end setup nonetheless skews constructive, based on Coinbase Institutional’s fourth-quarter 2025 “Charting Crypto: Navigating Uncertainty” report produced in collaboration with Glassnode.
The crew characterizes its stance as cautious however biased increased after the Oct. 10 shakeout. Coinbase hyperlinks the slide to heavy leverage assembly skinny order books, then worsening when some exchanges’ auto-deleveraging capped market-maker shorts and drained liquidity. The agency says costs stabilized into the weekend, however the tape stayed tentative as macro jitters resurfaced.
Liquidity and macro sit on the middle of Coinbase’s outlook.
The agency’s World M2 Cash Provide Index — which Coinbase says has traditionally tracked bitcoin and tends to guide by roughly 110 days — started the quarter in a supportive posture, although the report warns circumstances might tighten later in This autumn. Coinbase additionally anticipates two further Federal Reserve fee cuts earlier than year-end, a shift it believes might coax some money out of money-market funds and again towards danger.
Coverage and market plumbing spherical out what Coinbase calls a constructive setup.
The report highlights stablecoin provide and month-to-month volumes at or close to document ranges — proof, in Coinbase’s telling, that extra funds and transfers are shifting on-chain. It additionally notes that U.S. spot ETF infrastructure for bitcoin and ether continues to deepen, bettering entry for conventional allocators and strengthening market depth. These developments, Coinbase argues, are much less about headlines and extra about rails that maintain utilization and liquidity flowing by volatility.
On positioning, Coinbase favors bitcoin, citing its “digital gold” position amid persistent doubts about fiscal and financial self-discipline. The report says ether appears constructive as nicely: scaling progress has pushed extra exercise to layer-2 networks whereas charges have fallen, and sentiment has improved since earlier within the yr. An investor survey included within the report exhibits a majority of establishments bullish on BTC over the following three to 6 months, at the same time as many flagged the macro backdrop as the highest danger.
Coinbase devotes area to digital-asset treasury firms (DATs), describing them as significant, comparatively regular patrons of BTC and ETH. The agency says that the cohort now holds a notable share of the circulating provide and stays an essential supply of demand. On the identical time, Coinbase acknowledges open questions round long-run enterprise fashions — significantly after latest equity-market weak spot within the group.
The report doesn’t dismiss near-term hazards. Coinbase flags lacking U.S. knowledge tied to the federal government shutdown, the prospect that liquidity fades in November and uncertainty round DATs as causes to maintain sizing and time horizons disciplined.
Even so, the underside line from Coinbase Institutional is regular: liquidity circumstances, coverage progress and increasing on-chain utilization — led by stablecoins and maturing ETF plumbing — stay supportive into year-end, with bitcoin finest positioned to guide if these helps maintain.
