Bitcoin is holding round $122,000 in Wednesday’s Asian hours after setting a document excessive at $126,200 earlier this week, with some market watchers nonetheless anticipating a surge to a document $140,000 later this month.
Economist Timothy Peterson mentioned in an X put up Tuesday that bitcoin has a 50% chance of rising to $140,000, citing simulations that had been based mostly on knowledge from the previous decade.
“There’s a 50% probability Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k,” Peterson mentioned in an X put up on Wednesday. “However there’s a 43% probability Bitcoin finishes under $136k.”
Half of Bitcoin’s October features might have already occurred, in line with this AI simulation.
There’s a 50% probability Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k
However there’s a 43% probability Bitcoin finishes under $136k. pic.twitter.com/LPhFr0mry9— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 7, 2025
BTC is up almost 10% because the begin of October, which has traditionally been some of the bullish durations for all monetary belongings. The transfer has been pushed by document ETF inflows and exodus of cash from centralized exchanges.
Alternate balances have dropped to a six-year low of two.83 million BTC, with 170,000 cash withdrawn previously month. That blend of regular institutional shopping for and shrinking provide has stored pullbacks shallow. The U.S-listed spot ETFs have added greater than $60 billion since approvals in January 2204, together with $3.2 billion final week, the second-largest weekly consumption on document.
Buying and selling desks word that the trail of least resistance continues to be greater as “Uptober” performs out. Apart from, the outlook for S&P 500 stays constructive, supporting the bull case in BTC.
“Choices markets are pricing in a feral 5% probability for one more 10% rally within the SPX into year-end, and it’s more and more troublesome to discover a destructive catalyst to counteract that view,” mentioned Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, mentioned in a Telegram message. “We noticed little brief liquidation on the current hole up, suggesting individuals are underweight with minimal threat exposures.”
Nonetheless, the optimism shouldn’t be with out threat.
“The crypto market is navigating a fragile stability between robust technical assist and vital macroeconomic uncertainty,” mentioned Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Analysis. “Accumulation tendencies and institutional demand have propelled costs to new highs, however optimism continues to be uncovered to surprises from the Fed.”
The absence of recent financial knowledge releases as a result of ongoing U.S. authorities shutdown has depriving traders vital insights wanted to make recent allocations. Some observers are anxious that lack of recent knowledge, notably inflation, might maintain the Fed from slicing charges.
When FOMC and Magazine-7 earnings arrive later this month, the info will collide with a market already prolonged and leaning bullish. That can determine if the subsequent transfer is a clear run to $140,000 or a reset additional decrease.
BTC’s rally has paused previously 24 hours, because of profit-taking. Costs have dropped greater than 2%,, erasing a run-up since Sunday and flattening XRP, Solana’s SOL, ether and Cardano’s ADA down as a lot as 7%.
BNB Chain’s BNB stands out with 1.5% features in the identical interval, the lone wolf within the inexperienced as its underlying ecosystem sees a flurry of recent exercise.
My lens: $125,000 is the battle line. ETF demand and whale withdrawals give the bulls a cushion, however the quiet from macro won’t final.
